EMPOWERING WOMEN MIDDLE EAST AND GULF
How much progress has been made by key governments and organisations? Certainly, the UN has attempted to bring about a ceasefire, but the US has vetoed or abstained from any such resolution. It would be symbolically important for the US to call on Israel to change course in Gaza. Middle Eastern states are frustrated that no collective multilateral initiative has been marshalled as was done for Ukraine. There have been regional initiatives: at two summits last fall, the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Countries called for a ceasefire and humanitarian support for Palestinians in Gaza. There have been several diplomatic initiatives to build consensus and negotiate a plan for a ceasefire, hostage release and then a day-after scenario. There is a real risk of a broader regional escalation, so far relatively contained, despite the death of US servicemen in Jordan, loss of life on the border between Hezbollah and Israel, attacks on Axis of Resistance forces in Syria and Iraq, and Houthis’ attacks on merchant ships. Tensions have been especially high after Iran’s drone attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria. We are in a dangerous moment. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East has long been important in providing humanitarian support. Unfortunately, and strategically timed, Israel accused UNRWA members of collaborating with Hamas, and many countries withdrew financial support at a critical time. While some of that is returning, there still has not been an adequate investigation – again at the cost of the Palestinians. UNWRA has long faced accusations of collaboration, but it has provided durable humanitarian assistance to Palestinians for more than two decades. The withdrawal of support also provides Hamas with an opportunity to provide provisions, food and basic needs for people who are suffering. That reactive approach by western governments has knock-on effects that play out poorly, especially regarding the Palestinians themselves. What key tasks and challenges remain? I will not be hopeful until we get a ceasefire. Without
It is very disappointing that no individual country or coalition – neither the G7 nor the United Nations – has been able to protect human life in Gaza and impress on Israel the urgency of a ceasefire for its longer-term security”
the political space for diplomacy, it is hard to be hopeful. The suffering for ordinary Palestinians is inhumane, and there needs to be planning for what is becoming a massive humanitarian crisis that will include famine, further loss of life, drought – everything – in a small space that has been completely gutted, with no infrastructure or ability to deliver services to people. The ceasefire is urgently needed for those humane reasons. The task is immense. Everyone tosses around the hope that a two-state solution can quickly emerge. It is very hard to see how. People in Israel and Palestine have been traumatised by October 7 and the war, and there is overoptimistic hope that elections in Israel, governance and accountability reform, and a transitional government in Palestine can lead to a two-state solution. The Israeli establishment and population are less committed to a two-state solution than ever. There is no domestic discussion addressing Israel’s security crisis, and leaders are not building a case for the broad, ambitious plans being cooked up by external players and powers. Palestinian politics remain hostage to an ageing, longstanding leader in Ramallah who continues to obstruct the possibility of a transitional government. Reform and an anticorruption purge of that system are urgently needed. We haven’t heard from Palestinians in many public or international forums. There is no engagement with young Palestinians to understand what they seek for their future. These are real, structural impediments. How can the G7 help? The G7 has the opportunity to take a coordinated, unified, multilateral position to protect Palestinians from further disaster and pave the way to recognise a Palestinian state. Alongside a call for collective international and regional diplomacy to support this progress, a strong statement now – when multilateral institutions are fragile and dysfunctional – would be very important in this moment of geopolitical tension. We need leadership, and leadership requires moral courage. If there has ever been a vacuum of leadership, we are living through it. If there was ever a need for leadership, it is now. That’s being able to stand up and do the right thing – even telling your partners and allies that they’re doing the wrong thing.
SANAM VAKIL Sanam Vakil was appointed director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme in 2023. She was previously the programme’s deputy director and senior research fellow. She is also the James Anderson professorial lecturer in Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS Europe) in Bologna, Italy. She previously taught at SAIS Washington and served as a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of Action and Reaction: Women and Politics in Iran .
X-TWITTER @SanamVakil chathamhouse.org
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2024 — G7 ITALY: THE APULIA SUMMIT
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