finance ministers had 87%, and those identifying a specific country had 77%. Commitments on debt relief averaged 76% and the 31 commitments on official development assistance averaged 74%. Higher compliance also came when G7 development ministers’ meetings were held before the summit. Of the 11 years with ministerial meetings, nine were held before the summit, whose development commitments averaged 81% compliance. The two post-summit commitments averaged only 65%. Together, those years when development ministers met averaged 78%, higher than the 75% average for development commitments. Italy will host a development ministers’ meeting, but it will be in October, after June’s Apulia Summit. At least six G7 summits established development working groups. The three years with high compliance – averaging 82% – established working groups on financing and sustainable development. The three years with low compliance, averaging 72%, focused on Africa. Although Africa-focused commitments have lower compliance, Italy’s 2024 presidency is highlighting G7 partnerships with African countries. The
Apulia Summit will likely make several commitments related to Africa. To ensure these are implemented, G7 leaders should structure commitments to involve the World Bank specifically, have short timetables for realisation, and include finance ministers in discussions on financing and sustainable development. Furthermore, development commitments focused on a specific country achieve higher compliance than those that refer to Africa as a whole. Thus, G7 leaders’ commitments should focus on specific African countries, with those in North Africa the obvious candidates in 2024. Of the G7 members, Italy has the lowest compliance on development commitments at 62%, and overall compliance across all subjects of 63%. Based on historical data, the G7 Compliance Simulator, an AI predictor of G7 members’ compliance, predicts that Italy’s compliance with its 2023 Hiroshima commitments will remain low, with a probability of 47% for full compliance. It is therefore important for Italy to ensure that the development commitments made at the Apulia Summit are achievable, for itself and for all G7 members too.
SONJA DOBSON Sonja Dobson is pursuing a PhD in peace and conflict studies at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Otago. She holds a master’s degree in conflict studies and human rights from Utrecht University and a bachelor of arts and science in African studies and political science from the University of Toronto. Sonja has worked with the G7, G20 and BRICS Research Groups since 2015, and served as co-chair of summit studies for the G20 Research Group in 2022.
X-TWITTER @SAT_Dobson www.g7.utoronto.ca
G7 performance on development, 1975–2023
100
75
50
25
0
Compliance (%)
Conclusions (% words)
Commitments (%)
43
globalgovernanceproject.org
2024 — G7 ITALY: THE APULIA SUMMIT
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