On December 18 th , the Fed dropped its benchmark rate for the 3 rd time since summer, by another quarter percent, but suggested only 2 further reductions in 2025 – which was not what investors and bond markets wanted to hear. This caused stock markets to fall from recent highs and mortgage interest rates to spike up, but, so far, these are very short-term reactions, and may quickly change course again. In early December readings, the U.S. jobs report rebounded, inflation ticked up slightly, and consumer confidence hit its highest point in 7 months. And, as of the date of this report, a government shutdown looms once again due to the inability of Congress to agree on a spending bill. ❖ National existing-home sales in November 2024 fell 9.5% from October but rose 5% from November 2023. Though continuing to drop from the usual June peaks, year over year, the median single-family-home sales price and median condo/co-op sales price were up 4.8% and 2.8% respectively.
❖ Moving into the mid-winter holiday slowdown, the numbers of new listings, homes for sale, listings pending sale, and closed sales all declined, and can be expected to drop further in December.
❖ Approximately 53% of sales went into contract in less than 1 month (vs. 62% in 11/23), 18% sold over list price, and 25% of buyers purchased all-cash. The median days-on-market to acceptance of offer was 32 days (vs. 25 days last year), and sold listings received an average of 2.1 offers. Approximately, 30% of purchases were by first-time buyers, and 4% by vacation home buyers. It is difficult to make definitive determinations about where the market is heading in 2025 from end- of-year statistics, but in the last several years, demand rebounded substantially early in the new year and then accelerated into spring. As always, much depends on political and macroeconomic factors that are challenging to predict.
A national report is a huge generalization of values, conditions and trends across thousands of different markets. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures sometimes labeled preliminary. All numbers are approximate.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981 & Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
After 11 increases from March 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank kept the benchmark federal-funds rate unchanged from August 2023 to August 2024. On 9/18/24, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and by a quarter point on 11/7/24 & 12/18/24.
20
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
18
16
Early 1990 ’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Updated December 18, 2024
14
2022/2023/2024: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
12
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
10
8
6
2019, 2020, 2021: The Fed drops rate to effectively zero
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
4
High-tech & pandemic booms
2
Subprime boom
0
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023-2024 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
10/26/23
7.8
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on December 19, 2024, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.72%.
7.6
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
7.4
5/2/24
Fed began reducing its benchmark rate.
7.2
Updated 12/19/24
7.0
Jan. 2024
6.8
6.6
Jan. 2023
6.4
6.2
6.0
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial Markets in 2023-2024 Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/1/23
90%
80%
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/23
70%
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/23
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
▲ 2024 begins
10%
Updated 12/19/2024 AM
2023 begins
0%
Data per MarketWatch.com. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate. Financial markets are often prone to significant volatility even on a short-term basis.
U.S. Census 2023 American Housing Survey: https://www.census.gov/library/visualization s/2024/demo/home-improvements.html
2023 American Housing Survey: https://www.census.gov/library/visu alizations/2024/demo/housing- quality.html
Highlights from the “2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers” Published by the National Association of Realtors®, 11/4/24*
❑ The typical first-time buyer was 38 years old; the typical repeat buyer was 61 (both historic highs). ❑ 62% of buyers were married couples, 20% single females, 8% single males, and 6% were unmarried couples. First-time buyers made up only 24% of home purchases, an all-time low. ❑ 27% of buyers had a child under 18 in their home (down from 58% in 1985). ❑ 15% of buyers purchased a new-construction home; 85% bought a previously-owned home. ❑ Buyers typically searched for 10 weeks before purchasing. ❑ 17% bought a multi-generational home – for care of aging parents (25%), cost savings (36%), and/or to accommodate children aged 18+ years moving back in or who never left home (41%). ❑ Senior-related housing constituted 19% of purchases (involving buyers over the age of 60). 58% of seniors purchased a detached single-family home (vs. 75% of all buyers). ❑ The median distance between the home purchased and the home moved from was 20 miles. ❑ 59% of buyers cited quality of neighborhood, 45% proximity to friends and family, and 36% Purchasing a home is commonly one of the largest financial transactions of a buyer’s life. Homes are purchased because buyers want to own their own home, due to changes in employment and family situations, the desire for a smaller or larger living space, to change one’s state or neighborhood, as a way to build household wealth, and a hundred other personal and economic reasons. The U.S. homeownership rate is approximately 66%.
housing affordability as the most important factors in choosing a neighborhood. ❑ 74% of buyers financed their purchase, and 26% paid all cash (an all-time high).
❑ The typical home seller was 63 years old (highest age ever), and had lived in their home for 10 years before selling. Most common reason for selling was to be closer to friends & family. 36% bought a larger home, 32% a smaller home, and 30% a home of similar size. ❑ Homes sold were on market for a median 3 weeks, selling at a median of 100% of final list price. ❑ 90% of buyers and sellers worked with a real estate agent; 6% of sales were for-sale-by-owner. (38% of FSBO sales were to relatives, friends or neighbors, i.e. parties already known to seller.)
*© National Association of Realtors®: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights- from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers. Used with permission. Survey of recent buyers & sellers.
Highlights from 12/2024 Census Data Release Selected Statistics: Owner-Occupied & Rental Units*
• The number of owner-occupied housing units increased from 76.4 million units in 2014-2018 to 82.9 million in 2019-2023. More people owned homes than rented in 3,070 of the nation’s 3,144 counties. (Dense urban-area counties are most likely to have more tenant-occupied units than owner-occupied homes.)
• The number of owner-occupied households without a mortgage increased by 3.9 million units to 38.8% of owned homes, a historic high.
• Between the two 5-year periods, the number of rented units increased by over a million to 44.6 million units. Much of the national increase in rental housing was driven by a small number of counties, such as Harris, Travis and Bexar counties in Texas; Kings County in New York; and Miami-Dade County in Florida. • There were approximately 20 million tenant-occupied units – almost 45% of rental housing – paying more than 30% of their monthly income toward housing costs (vs. 17.3 million, or 21%, of owned units). Households who spend more than 30% of their income toward housing costs are considered “cost burdened” by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. • Many of the counties with the highest median gross rents were in California (including San Mateo, Santa Clara, Marin and San Francisco counties), Virginia (Arlington, Loudon and Fairfax counties), or New York (Nassau, Suffolk and New York counties).
*Data per 2019-2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates released 12/12/24. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Why People Moved U.S. Census, 2023 National Survey Estimates*
Approximately 7.7% of the total U.S. population moved in 2023.
2,673,000
Newer, better or larger home
2,634,000
New job or job transfer
2,148,000
To establish own household
And changes in significant-other relationships
2,108,000
Change in marriage status
2,018,000
Cheaper housing
1,547,000
And “other family reasons”
Closer to family/family care
1,360,000
To own instead of rent
1,112,000
Also “less crime”
Better neighborhood
1,045,000
Closer to work/commute
Chart numbers apply to residents aged 16+ years.
697,000
To attend or leave college
53% moved within the same county, 42% moved out of county, and 5% moved from abroad.
417,000
Health reasons
319,000
Retired
39% of those moving were aged 20 to 29; 28% were 30 to 44; 19%, 45 to 64; and 8% were 65+. Older age segments tend to move much less often.
299,000
Lost job/look for work
151,000
Foreclosure or eviction
96,000
Prior to moving, approximately 36% lived in owner-occupied homes, and 64% in rentals.
Change of climate
41,000
Natural disaster
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
*Movers 16+ years of age; owned, rental and social housing. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2023 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, published 12/2024. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Compass National Real Estate Insights
National, Regional and Metro-Area Home Prices & Appreciation Rates
Short-Term & Long-Term Trends
U.S. Median Single-Family-Home Sales Price Monthly Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2019*
The November 2024 median house sales price rose 4.8% year-over-year.
Median sales prices typically rise and fall to seasonal supply and demand trends, and usually peak for the year in June. Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers negotiated in the previous month. Appreciation is typically measured on a year-over-year basis.
June 2024
June 2022
June 2023
$425,000
$400,000
June 2021
$375,000
$350,000
$325,000
June 2019
$300,000
$275,000
$250,000
2020 Pandemic hits
Updated through November 2024
$225,000
$200,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing single-family home sales, not seasonally adjusted. Does not include new-home sales. Last month price labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Median Single-Family-Home Sales Price Long-Term Market Dynamics, by Month, since 1990*
2022-23-24
The November 2024 median house sales price rose 4.8% year-over-year.
$400,000
The median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less, and can be affected by factors besides changes in fair market value. The regular ups and downs within calendar years mostly reflect the effects of market seasonality. It is not unusual for median price to peak for the year in June.
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
Pandemic hits ▲
2005-2007
$200,000
2000
$150,000
Market recession, foreclosure crisis
1990
$100,000
Updated through November 2024
$50,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing single-family dwellings only, does not include new-home sales. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
National Home Price Appreciation Percentage Changes, 3 rd Quarter Median House Sales Prices*
Compared to 1 year ago, the Q3 2024 national median single-family sales price climbed 3.1%.* Longer-term appreciation rates are substantial, and far outpaced inflation.
326.4%
300%
250%
Comparing 3 rd quarter median house sales prices. 1990-2024 inflation rate was approximately 138%.**
200%
178.4%
150%
135.5%
Change from before Pandemic
100%
82.9%
49.5%
1-Year Change
50%
3.1%
0%
Since 2023
Since 2019
Since 2015
Since 2010
Since 2000
Since 1990
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Quarterly sales of existing single family dwellings. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. **Per BLS inflation calculator.
The November 2024 median condo/co-op sales price was up 2.8% year-over-year.
U.S. Median Condo/Co-op Sales Price Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2019*
June 2024
375,000
June 2023
Median sales prices typically rise and fall to seasonal supply and demand trends, and peak for the year in late spring. Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers negotiated in the previous month. Appreciation is typically measured on a year-over-year basis.
June 2022
350,000
June 2021
325,000
300,000
275,000
June 2019
250,000
2020 Pandemic hits
Updated through November 2024
225,000
200,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing condos and co-ops, not seasonally adjusted. Does not include new-home sales. Last month price labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Median CONDO/CO-OP Sales Price Long-Term Market Dynamics, by Month, since 2000*
2023-2024
The November 2024 median condo/co-op sales price was up 2.8% year-over-year.
2022
350,000
Generally speaking, condo and co-op sales are typically concentrated in more expensive, urban- area markets, where they constitute a more affordable alternative to houses. They make up about 10% to 11% of national home sales.
300,000
2020
250,000
2005-06-2007
Market recession, foreclosure crisis
Pandemic hits ▲
200,000
150,000
2000
100,000
Updated through November 2024
50,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing condo and co-op sales only, does not include new-project sales. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Median House Price Appreciation Annual Median Sales Prices since 1980*
$400,000
This chart is broad illustration of national median house sales price appreciation across a vast range of markets of differing dynamics and values.
$350,000
$300,000
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value.
$250,000
$200,000
Pandemic hits ▲
Annual prices can disguise significant changes that occurred within the calendar year.
Subprime bubble
$150,000
Foreclosure crisis
$100,000
$50,000
$0
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. National sales of existing single-family dwellings. Does not include condo, co-op or new-home sales. All numbers approximate, may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990 Y-o-Y Change in Annual Median HOUSE Sales Price*
Pandemic boom
20%
18%
Subprime bubble
15%
| Market recovery ►
12%
12%
10%
9%
9%
10%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5% 5%
5%
5% 5%
5%
5%
4% 4%
4%
3%
3%
Foreclosure crisis
3%
3%
1%
0.5%
0%
0%
-1%
-5%
-4%
Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between states, counties and submarkets within counties. Annual data may disguise significant changes in price appreciation trends within the calendar year.
-10%
-10%
-13%
-15%
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. National sales of existing single-family dwellings. Rounded to nearest full percentage point, except for 2023. Not adjusted for inflation. All numbers approximate, may contain errors and subject to revision.
National Existing-Home Sales by U.S. Region House, Condo & Co-op Sales, November 2024*
12%
Northeast
19%
45%
This chart reflects percentages of total existing-home sales by region. The South is even more dominant in new-single-family- home construction (not illustrated here), where its percentage runs at approximately 60% (per 2023 U.S. Census data). Many factors are at play in both segments, including population migration and housing affordability.
West
South Region
Midwest
24%
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Monthly Summary: Existing house, condo and co-op sales, does not include new-home sales. Percentage of national sales. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Overall, the West region has the most expensive housing and the Midwest the most affordable, but these broad regions contain thousands of submarkets of varying home values.
U.S. Median Existing-Home Sales Price Longer-Term Market Dynamics, by Region, since 1999*
2022-2023-2024
$650,000
West
$550,000
Northeast
South
$450,000
Midwest
2005-06-2007
$350,000
Market recession & foreclosure crisis
$250,000
$150,000
Pandemic hits ▲
Most of the regular ups and downs in price-trend lines reflect the effects of market seasonality on sales prices. Long-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
Updated through November 2024
$50,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. Existing Home Sales, not seasonally adjusted: single family dwellings, townhomes, condos, co-ops. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Median House Price Appreciation Rates Annual Median Sales Price Changes by Region since 1990
450
Northeast
Midwest
South West
400
Regional home price appreciation rates vary over different periods due to local economic and demographic factors, but over the longer term, trend lines generally run in parallel.
350
300
1990 median house sales price = 100. 200 = 100% home-price appreciation since 1990; 400 = 300% appreciation.
250
200
Subprime bubble
Pandemic hits ▲
150
Foreclosure crisis
100
50
0
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. National sales of existing single-family dwellings. Does not include condo, co-op or new-home sales. 1990 price = a reading of 100. All numbers approximate, may contain errors and subject to revision.
National Home Sales by Price Segment House, Condo & Co-op Sales, November 2024*
3%
8%
$100,000 & less
$1,000,000+
8%
19%
$750,000 - $1,000,000
$100,000 - $250,000
$500,000 - $750,000
18%
$250,000 - $500,000
Prices typically skew higher in urban metro regions.
44%
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Monthly Summary: Existing house, condo and co-op sales, does not include new-home sales. Percentages will vary by month. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Median HOUSE Sales Prices & Year-over-Year Changes Q3 2024, Selected U.S. Metro Areas*
“Metro Areas” typically cover much larger regions – multiple counties or even parts of multiple states – than the cities they are named for, with wide variations in values between submarkets.
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Denver-Aurora- Lakewood, CO $ 654,600 -2.7% Wash DC-Alexandria (DC, VA, MD, WV) $ 642,500 4.9% Miami-W. Palm Beach-Ft Lauderdale $ 630,000 4.6% Portland-Vancouver (OR-WA) $ 609,000 2.6% Salt Lake City, UT $ 581,800 4.9% Sacramento- Roseville, CA $ 560,000 3.3% Manchester-Nashua, NH $ 551,300 9.0% Boise-Nampa, ID $ 491,800 1.2% Las Vegas-Paradise- Henderson, NV $ 483,200 4.9% Austin-Round Rock, TX $ 481,800 -0.8%
San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara, CA $ 1,900,000 2.7% Anaheim-Santa Ana, Irvine, CA $ 1,398,500 7.2% San Francisco- Oakland-Hayward $ 1,309,000 0.7% Urban Honolulu, HI $ 1,138,000 7.2% San Diego-Carlsbad, CA $ 1,010,000 3.2%
Madison, WI
$ 459,800 7.4%
Charleston, SC
$ 458,600 8.8%
Nashville-Franklin, TN
$ 421,500 1.9%
Tampa-Clearwater- St. Petersburg, FL $ 410,000 -1.2%
Hartford, CT
$ 402,700 7.4%
Minneapolis-St. Paul (MN, WI) Chicago-Naperville- Elgin (IL, IN, WI) Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington, TX Atlanta-Marietta, GA Houston-Sugar Land- Woodlands, TX
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Naples-Immokalee, FL
$ 393,400 1.4%
$ 947,500 5.6%
$ 390,400 6.9%
$ 867,000 2.0%
$ 384,100 -0.4%
Boulder, CO
$ 832,200 -3.0%
Seattle-Tacoma- Bellevue, WA
$ 382,900 1.0%
$ 802,300 7.8%
Bridgeport- Stamford, CT
$ 348,200 0.8%
$ 784,000 7.6%
Kansas City, MO, KS
Boston-Cambridge- Newton, MA, NH $ 758,700 1.8% New York-Newark (NY, NJ, PA) $ 719,500 8.2%
$ 341,600 3.9%
Asheville, NC Phoenix-Mesa- Scottsdale, AZ
$ 478,000 3.1%
Pittsburg, PA
$ 239,400 3.6%
$ 469,500 0.5% *Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®: All rights reserved. Used with permission. Sales of existing single- family homes, preliminary calculations. May contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
“Metro Areas” typically cover much larger regions – multiple counties or even parts of multiple states – than the cities they are named for, with wide variations in values between submarkets.
Median CONDO/CO-OP Sales Prices & Year-over-Year Changes Q3 2024, Selected U.S. Metro Areas*
Condos & Co-ops are more commonly found in more expensive urban locations.
Metro Area
Median House Sales Price
Metro Area Median Condo/ Co-op Price San Francisco- Oakland-Hayward $ 924,900 3.2% San Diego-Carlsbad, CA $ 680,500 0.4%
Metro Area
Median Condo/ Co-op Price
Providence-Warwick (RI, MA)
Baltimore-Columbia, MD Atlanta-Marietta, GA
$ 383,400 2.9%
$ 301,800 3.6%
Wash DC-Alexandria (DC, VA, MD, WV) $ 378,100 6.0% Worcester (MA, CT) $ 375,800 3.7% Manchester-Nashua, NH $ 374,700 8.4% Austin-Round Rock, TX $ 363,900 -2.4% Salt Lake City, UT $ 363,800 0.1% North Port-Sarasota, FL $ 340,000 -8.9% Portland-Vancouver (OR-WA) $ 339,600 -2.8% Miami-W. Palm Beach-Ft Lauderdale $ 338,700 2.6%
$ 298,200 1.9%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Boston-Cambridge- Newton, MA Barnstable Town, MA Urban Honolulu, HI
Phoenix-Mesa- Scottsdale, AZ
$ 666,100 3.7%
$ 297,100 1.1%
Las Vegas-Paradise- Henderson, NV Chicago-Naperville- Elgin (IL, IN, WI)
$ 613,000 -0.6%
$ 292,500 5.5%
$ 290,400 6.4%
$ 554,900 6.0%
Tampa-Clearwater- St. Petersburg, FL $ 290,000 -3.3%
$ 508,600 -1.2%
Boulder, CO
$ 501,200 1.5%
Hartford, CT
$ 262,600 10.1%
Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington, TX Houston-Sugar Land- Woodlands, TX
$ 255,400 0.9%
Portland, ME
$ 483,100 15.2%
New York-Jersey City (NY, NJ)
$ 231,500 2.9%
$ 398,300 5.1%
Sacramento- Roseville, CA
New Orleans, LA $ 194,100 -8.1%
$ 332,400 3.5%
Richmond, VA $ 394,900 5.9% Bridgeport- Stamford, CT $ 394,400 4.8%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
Winston-Salem, NC $ 178,800 4.3%
$ 305,000 -7.6%
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®: All rights reserved. Used with permission. Sales of existing condos and co-ops, preliminary calculations. May contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Compass National Real Estate Insights
Speed of Sale, All-Cash Buyers, Average Number of Offers, First-Time Buyers, Distressed Property Sales
U.S. Median Days on Market – Speed of Sale National Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2011*
2011
100
Median days-on-market remain low by long-term standards, but have risen from spring. Lower readings generally signify stronger buyer demand. This statistic measures the median time between a listing coming on market and offer acceptance. Spring is typically the period of highest buyer demand and fastest sale; mid- winter usually sees the longest days-on-market readings.
90
◄ End of foreclosure crisis/ housing market recession
80
70
60
50
Updated through November 2024
40
30
20
10
| Pandemic Boom |
0
*Realtors® Confidence Index Survey. Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. All numbers should be considered approximate good-faith estimates based on a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Percentage of All-Cash Buyers National Market Dynamics since 2015, by Month*
3-month rolling average
32%
All-cash buyers are typically concentrated among investors and older, more affluent households.
30%
For sales of single-family homes alone, the percentage of all-cash buyers often runs significantly higher than what is illustrated here for all home types.
28%
26%
The longer-term trend is more meaningful than regular, short-term fluctuations.
24%
▲ Interest rates soar
22%
20%
18%
16%
Pandemic hits ▲
Updated through November 2024
14%
*Realtors® Confidence Index Survey. Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 3-month rolling average of NAR existing home data. All numbers are approximate good-faith estimates based on a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Average Number of Offers Received Market Dynamics & Seasonality, by Month, since 2016*
April 2022
Spring 2021
5
The average number of offers received reflects the balance (or imbalance) between buyer demand and the supply of homes for sale. It typically peaks during the spring selling season, normally the most active and competitive of the year.
4
Spring 2023
Spring 2024
3
Spring 2016
Spring 2018
|
Pandemic Boom
|
2
1
Updated through November 2024
0
*Offers on most recent sale, per Realtors® Confidence Index Survey. Data copyright National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. All numbers are approximate good-faith estimates based on a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Percentage of Sales with First-Time Buyers National Market Dynamics since 2010 * *
6-month-rolling average
45%
Even as the proportion of 1 st time homebuyers has declined, their median age has hit an all- time high (38 years). Reasons include declining home affordability (prices & interest rates), high levels of student debt, and competition for homes from investors.
Market recession, foreclosure crisis
40%
▲ 1 st time homebuyer tax credit
35%
| Market recovery ►
30%
Pandemic hits ▲
25%
Updated through November 2024
20%
*per Realtors® Confidence Index Survey. Data copyright National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 6-month-rolling averages. All numbers are approximate good-faith estimates based on a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Percentage of Buyers: Non-Primary Residence* National Market Dynamics since 2016
12-month-rolling average
17%
This chart is based on buyers for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops for investment or as second homes. If calculated just for single-family homes, the percentage would be considerably higher.
16%
15%
14%
13%
Pandemic hits ▲
12%
◄◄ The big surge in investor purchases of single- family homes began during the post-2007 foreclosure crisis, when institutional investors bought distressed properties in huge quantities at fire-sale prices.
11%
Updated through November 2024
10%
*Investor-rental or vacation use, per Realtors® Confidence Index Survey. Data copyright National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Single-family, condo and co-ops. Good-faith estimates based on survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Percentage of Distressed Home Sales Foreclosures & Short Sales as % of Total Sales, by Month, since 2009*
50%
There were 3 huge factors in the 2008-2011 home-price crash: 1) An enormous flood of foreclosure and short sales caused by (predatory) subprime lending, 2) the 2008 collapse in financial markets, and 3) rising unemployment. Soaring mortgage delinquency rates are a leading indicator of crisis in both the housing market and the economy. Due to long-term, fixed-rate mortgages taken out during an extended period of extremely low interest rates, plus substantial home-price appreciation, distressed property sales remain close to historic lows.
45%
Market recession, foreclosure crisis
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Updated through November 2024
10%
Pandemic hits ▼
5%
2009
0%
*per Realtors® Confidence Index Survey. Data copyright National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. All numbers are approximate good-faith estimates based on a survey of Realtors. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Compass National Real Estate Insights
Supply & Demand Trends
New Listings Coming on Market* National Market Dynamics & Seasonality
As is the typical seasonal trend, the number of new listings in November 2024 declined substantially from October, and can be expected to plunge in December.
May 2019
May 2018
600,000
June 2021
June 2022
550,000
July 2020
500,000
May 2024
450,000
May 2023
400,000
350,000
300,000
December
December
December
250,000
December
▲ Pandemic hits
December
200,000
December
New listing activity ebbs and flows according to seasonal trends, typically hitting its (very) low point in December, then accelerating rapidly in the new year to peak in May or June.
150,000
Updated through November 2024
100,000
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data may lag full-month data due to RDC methodology. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
U.S. New Listings Coming on Market National Market Dynamics since 2017, 12-Month Rolling Average
460,000
Pandemic hits ▲
440,000
Interest rates soar ▲▲
420,000
After the precipitous decline from spring 2022, the 12-month-rolling-average number of new listings has been steadily climbing in 2024, but remains extremely low by historical norms .
400,000
Updated through November 2024
380,000
The 12-month-rolling average is a broad, simplified view of longer-term trends. Each data point reflects the monthly average of the previous 12 months of new listings. This generally deletes the effects of seasonality but can lag short-term changes.
360,000
340,000
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
U.S. Annual New-Listing Volume Number of New Listings Coming on Market by Year, since 2017*
5,750,000
5,607,592
5,566,808
5,487,794
5,500,000
5,305,954
5,206,662
| Mortgage Lock-In Effect Impacts New-Listing Activity|
5,250,000
5,000,000
4,837,242
Compared to the average annual number of new listings in 2017-2019 – before the pandemic hit – the number in 2023 was down by about 25%: Almost 1,400,000 fewer homes came on market.*
4,750,000
4,500,000
4,250,000
4,143,164
4,000,000
Spring 2020: Pandemic hits
Spring 2022: Interest rates soar
3,750,000
3,500,000
3,250,000
3,000,000
2,750,000
2,500,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
U.S. Active Listings For Sale Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2017
May 2017
June 2018
June 2019
The number of active listings in November 2024 was down 3% from October, but up 18% from November 2023. Inventory continues to run much lower than pre-pandemic norms.
2,000,000
1,800,000
May 2020
1,600,000
Oct. 2024
July 2021
July 2022
1,400,000
Oct. 2023
The number of active listings is affected by 1) how many new listings come on market, 2) how quickly buyers purchase them, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers removing their homes from the market without selling. The number typically rises and falls by season.
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
| The Pandemic Boom
|
600,000
Updated through November 2024
400,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing homes (not new-construction): single-family dwellings, condos, co-ops. Not seasonally adjusted. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Average Monthly Number of Active Listings Annual Average Monthly Listing Inventory since 2017*
1,801,667
1,764,167
1,741,667
1,800,000
Compared to the average monthly number of active listings in 2017-2019 – before the pandemic boom began – the number of homes on the market in 2023 was down approximately 40%.*
1,600,000
1,425,833
1,400,000
1,147,500
1,200,000
1,097,500
1,057,583
1,000,000
800,000
Spring 2020: Pandemic hits
Spring 2022: Interest rates soar
600,000
400,000
The number of active listings is affected by 1) how many new listings come on market, 2) how quickly buyers purchase them, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) the number of homes removed from the market without selling.
200,000
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing Home Listings, not seasonally adjusted: single-family dwellings, condos, co-ops. December 2023 number estimated using trend data through November 2023. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Active Inventory of Homes for Sale 12-Month-Rolling Average, Long-Term Trends, since 2000*
2007-2008
3,750,000
3,500,000
2011
3,250,000
3,000,000
Subprime bubble, market recession, foreclosure crisis
The number of homes for sale has been rising in 2024, but still running extremely low by long-term standards.
2,750,000
2,500,000
2015
2,250,000
2000
2,000,000
2019
1,750,000
Pandemic hits ▲
1,500,000
2022-23-2024
1,250,000
*The 12-month-rolling average is a very broad, simplified view of trends, which may lag short-term changes . Each data point reflects the monthly average of the previous 12 months of active listings.
1,000,000
Interest rates soar ▲
Updated through November 2024
750,000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing homes (not new-construction): single-family dwellings, condos, co-ops. Not seasonally adjusted. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
The daily number of pending listings in November 2024 declined from October – and will almost certainly continue to drop heading into the mid-winter slowdown – but was up 15% year-over-year.
U.S. Pending Listings by Month* Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2018
June 2021
Oct. 2020
May 2022
600,000
May 2024
May 2023
June 2019
500,000
May 2018
400,000
|
The Pandemic Boom
|
300,000
200,000
100,000
A snapshot measure of how many pending listings (listings under contract) can be expected on any given day of the specified month. It is a measure of buyer demand.
Updated through November 2024
0
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
The pending-sale ratio in November 2024 was the lowest since early 2020, though not low by pre-pandemic norms. Sales activity in 2024 has not kept pace with the increase in listings for sale, causing the ratio to drop.
U.S. Pending-Sale Ratio* Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2016
March 2022
May 2021
150%
Longer-Term Perspective on Demand vs. Supply
125%
This chart illustrates the ratio of the pending listing count to the active listing count during the specified month. It is a general measurement of demand vs. supply: Higher percentages reflect stronger buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings available to purchase.*
100%
May 2023
April 2024
75%
|
The Pandemic Boom
|
Sept. 2019
May 2018
50%
May 2017
25%
Pandemic hits
Updated through November 2024
0%
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, residential listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. This statistic is specific to Realtor.com Research and does not constitute “absorption rate. ” All numbers approximate.
U.S. Monthly Home Sales Volume Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2020*
The number of existing-home sales in November 2024 declined 9.5% from October, but rose 5% year-over-year. Sales volume can be expected to substantially decline over the next 2 months for the typical mid-winter slowdown. (Note that some second-home markets see higher demand in mid-winter.)
June 2021
650,000
July 2020
600,000
June 2022
550,000
Updated through November 2024
500,000
June 2023
450,000
May 2024
First year of pandemic
400,000
350,000
Jan.-Feb.
Jan.-Feb.
300,000
Jan.
Sales in one month mostly reflect market conditions in the previous month when offers were negotiated. Monthly sales volume usually peaks in late spring, and hits its low point in mid-winter.
250,000
Jan.
Jan.
200,000
* Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing home sales (single-family dwellings, condos and co-ops), does not included new-home sales. Not seasonally adjusted. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Single-Family Home Sales by Year Annual National Sales Volumes since 1980*
Subprime bubble
6,000,000
Pandemic boom
According to preliminary calculations, 2023 saw the lowest number of home sales since the foreclosure crisis & great recession.
5,000,000
Foreclosure crisis
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
Sales volume is affected by buyer demand, as well as the supply of listings available to purchase.
1,000,000
0
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Number of sales of existing single-family dwellings - does not include new-home sales or condo/co-op sales. All numbers approximate, may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Existing-Home Sales Longer-Term Market Dynamics since 2000*
12-Month Rolling Average
2005-2006
600000
The 12-month-rolling-average sales volume is the lowest since the post-2008 recession.
550000
Subprime bubble
Pandemic boom
The 12-month-rolling average is a very broad, simplified illustration of long-term trends, which may lag short- term changes . Each data point reflects the monthly average of the previous 12 months of sales.
500000
450000
2000
Market recession & foreclosure crisis
400000
350000
▲ 2010 Tax credit
300000
Updated through November 2024
250000
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing Home Sales, not seasonally adjusted: single-family dwellings, condos, co-ops. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) National Market Dynamics since 2019*
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings at the current rate of sale. It rises and falls to seasonal trends in supply and demand, as well as reacting to changes in economic conditions. The lower the reading, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the number of homes for sale.
Sept. 2024
Summer 2019
4.5
4.0
Fall 2023
Fall 2022
Early 2019
3.5
3.0
Early 2020
Summer 2021
Early 2024
Pandemic hits
2.5
Early 2023
Pandemic housing-market boom: Extremely low inventory
MSI usually starts out very low early in the new year, signifying high demand compared to an inadequate supply of new listings: A competitive market for buyers. Supply then increases through late summer or fall.
2.0
Early 2021
1.5
Early 2022
Updated through November 2024
1.0
* Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Data for existing homes: houses, condos and co-ops, seasonally adjusted. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 12-Month-Rolling Average, Long-Term Trends, since 2000*
2008-2009
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings at current rates of sales activity. The lower the reading, the stronger buyer demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. 12-month-rolling MSI has been steadily climbing higher, but still remains low by pre-pandemic standards. On a monthly basis, the MSI in November 2024 was 3.8 months.
10
9
8
Market recession & foreclosure crisis
7
6
5
2000
2019
4
2024
3
2
Pandemic boom
*The 12-month-rolling average is a very broad, simplified view of long-term trends: Each data point reflects the monthly average of the previous 12 months MSI readings. It removes seasonality from the calculation, but may lag short-term changes.
1
Updated through November 2024
0
*Data copyright, National Association of Realtors®. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Existing Home Sales, not seasonally adjusted: single-family dwellings, condos, co-ops. Last month labeled “preliminary . ” Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
U.S. Price Reductions on Active Listings National Market Dynamics & Seasonality since 2018
Price reductions in November 2024 continued to fall from the mid-summer high, but were 10% higher year- over-year.
500,000
July-Oct. 2018
450,000
June 2019
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but is also affected by specific market conditions.
400,000
July 2024
July-Oct. 2022
350,000
Oct. 2023
300,000
June 2020
250,000
Aug.-Sept 2021
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Updated through November 2024
0
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Compass National Real Estate Insights
Additional Economic Indicators
Mortgage Interest Rates, Long-Term Trends since 1976 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings
1981
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC)
18
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on December 19, 2024, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.72%.
16
14
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
12
1990
10
2000
2022-23-24
8
2005-2008
6
2018
4
2020- 2021
2
Affected by a number of often volatile economic factors, it can be very difficult to accurately predict short-term interest rate changes.
0
Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States, retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US. FHLMC: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All numbers approximate.
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