MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective In February, the almond market displayed mixed trends across regions, with total shipments aligning with market expectations. Steady demand and a tighter crop supply are leading to earlier product shortages, causing pricing to firm. Buyers continue to adopt a short-term purchasing approach, influenced by uncertainty around potential tariff impacts. Securing coverage sooner rather than later would be prudent to ensure a continuous supply. The outlook for the 2025 crop remains uncertain, with concerns about producing a crop larger than the previous year due to stress in orchards caused by last summer’s heat and ongoing water-related challenges. As the year progresses, the industry will continue to closely monitor these factors, and the impact on future supply will become clearer in the coming months. The next major milestone will be in May, when the USDA releases its Subjective Estimate. COMMITMENTS Total commitments reached 577.4 million pounds, the highest level in the last three months, though still reflecting an 8.5% decrease compared to last year. Both domestic and export commitments are lower. Buyers continue to adopt a short-term purchasing approach, yet still need to secure additional coverage, as current sales barely cover the upcoming months. New sales are strong, totaling 221 million pounds, marking a 3% increase over last year and setting a record for February. Assuming a 2.7-billion-pound crop, current shipments and commitments now account for 69% of total supply compared to 70% last year. The industry is on track to achieve a similar tight carryout as last year. CROP Crop receipts have now reached 2.68 billion pounds, indicating a final crop size of approximately 2.7 billion pounds, a 1% decrease compared to last year. With shipments maintaining a steady pace, it is anticipated that product shortages will occur even sooner than last year, particularly as the transition to the new crop begins. This is already being reflected in the pricing of certain products. Looking ahead to the 2025 crop, concerns are mounting about the ability to produce a crop larger than the previous year. Last summer’s heat caused significant stress in orchards, and ongoing water shortages and inadequate grower inputs continue to have a lasting impact. While it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions, the industry will closely monitor these factors in the coming months.
Laura Gerhard, Vice President of Ingredients and International Branded, Blue Diamond Growers
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ALMOND FACTS
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