Market Trends Summer 2018

MARKET TRENDS

MARKET TRENDS

CALCIUM/MAGNESIUM/SODIUM BHB (BETA HYDROXYBUTYRATE)

The inquiries keep increasing for the above three supplements and supply is very tight due to factory production schedule and starting material supply. CALCIUM CITRATE/MAGNESIUM CITRATE The import is switching from China to India due to the antidumping issue with Chinese material. CALCIUM D-PANTOTHENATE Some existing factories resumed production which has made the supply better for B5. However, the pollution control in Shandong province is strict and it causes some issues with the production. CHONDROITIN/COLLAGEN The Chondroitin market is currently stable. Collagen is becoming more popular and customers are trying to use different types and different sources to reach the best delivery value and results. CITRIC ACID ANHYDROUS Price is stable and will be for one month but higher than earlier this year due to currency, production cost and duty fees. CLA OIL/CLA POWDER CLA price is generally stable but increased little by little due to production cost and the currency exchange rate. COQ10 Most blank orders are signed for the major demand in the U.S. and the price became soft due to good availability. CREATINE MONO Prices are higher than at the beginning of the year due to limited starting material. Some factories chose to relocate in order to avoid the pollution issue while some factories tried to step into production. We think the price will be high towards the end of the year, but when the new factories start to produce stably, it may stabilize the price and market as well. FOLIC ACID Production and demand are balanced, but current demand is far less than the production capacity, so the price is expected to be soft in the coming three months. GABA Price remains firm so far and demand is strong. The factories know the overall demand well and the market has developed in a healthy manner. GLUCOSAMINE Price will increase a little bit due to the currency, but generally it is still stable. Generally, the price is not as high as earlier this year and is stable at its current level.

BCAA SERIES BCAA 2:1:1 Instant L-Isoleucine Granular L-Leucine Granular L-Valine Granular L-Isoleucine Instant L-Leucine Instant L-Valine Instant

MARKET UPDATE SUMMER 2018

By Tony Xue

L ooking towards summer 2018, the trade war* launched by President Trump against China ranks as the top potential factor which will influence the future supply of ingredients. Once product list and timeline are confirmed, and the new tariffs* are charged upon the imported products from China, the prices will change dramatically in the ingredient industry because most of the key dietary supplements come from China such as Ascorbic Acid/Vitamin C, Taurine, COQ10, etc. The uncertainty is how many products will be listed and when the new tariff rates will take effect, for which, we will monitor closely. Another important factor is the currency exchange rate between China and the U.S. RMB value has been increasing against the USD in the first half of the year and it looks like the trend will continue. The China exporters are trying to offer shorter payment terms so that they can collect the USD sooner to reduce the loss due to the currency. As to the supply from factories, the general situation is better now. Most of the products are back to normal. Some new factories launched the products that were tight at the end of last year to early this year, and some existing factories whose production were shut down due to different reasons are resuming their production.

MAIN PRODUCTS L-Lysine HCl L-Histidine HCl L-Glutamic Acid HCl L-Ornithine HCl DL-Methionine L-Methionine L-Arginine-L-Aspartate L-Lysine-L-Aspartate L-Serine L-Tryptophan

*As this issue goes to press, the trade war/tariffs are uncertain.

ACE K Price is increasing step by step for three reasons: 1. The factory is trying to make more profit from Ace K to compensate for the loss of their other ingredients 2. One of the major factories shut down 3. The currency exchange rate change B12 The pollution control still has great impact on the major factories and price remains very high. Some new factories are trying to produce B12 and we think it will become stable in the coming two months. BCAA Instant BCAA supply and demand are balanced so far and the price is stable. The individual Leucine, Isoleucine and value supply are tight. The major reason for this

is the factory of the individual amino acids supply most of their output to the Instant BCAA factories already and they are not worrying about the sales and only offer availability to the market when the deal is good. BETAINE ANHYDROUS/BETAINE HCL Generally, the price of Betaine becomes higher due to the starting material cost increase. The number of inquiries are much greater than earlier in the year and we think the price will stay firm. BIOTIN The price has dropped due to an improved availability from the major factories.

factories is more intense and different factories have adjusted their prices based on their capabilities. CAFFEINE SYNTHETIC/THEOBROMINE Prices are stable and at a high level. One of the major factories had some issues with the FDA which caused supply issues, but there are other factories who are running production normally. The cost of pollution treatment and also the difficulty of the production will keep the price stable at the current level. CALCIUM/MAGNESIUM/MANGANESE/ POTASSIUM GLUCONATE SODIUM/ZINC The antidumping investigation is still on for Gluconate Salt which influences the importation from China.

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INGREDIENTSONLINE.COM™ • SUMMER 2018

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