Figure 9: Current and forecast EHCPs at Year 13
Finding 2: The number of young people in receipt of an EHCP has increased by 140% and is still increasing. Whilst it is expected that most of this group will not meet the eligibility for ongoing adult social care support, it will nonetheless be likely to lead to an increase in demand. Individuals with disabilities and higher levels of need are most likely to be those requiring adult social care. As such, a helpful indicator of demand (in addition to volume of total young people) is the proportion of those young people receiving support for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities. Those in receipt of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) – available for those who require more individualised or intensive support than SEN support can provide – represent those with complex needs and thereby higher provision. The number of pupils with an EHCP increased by 140% from the school year 2015/16 to 2023/24 (240,183 plans and statements to 575,963 lxxx ), whilst the total number of pupils has only increased by 7% over the same period lxxxi . This growth rate in EHCPs nationally is expected to continue. However, it is reasonable to assume that it will not grow exponentially forever (or that 100% of pupils will have an EHCP). One assumption proposed by the Department for Education is that authorities could use a future planning limit – this has been suggested at 6% of the total pupil population lxxxii . Despite ongoing growth in EHCPs issued, 6% is being suggested because gov.uk data suggests that fewer than 7% of local authorities have more than 6% of pupils in schools with an EHCP (albeit this has grown by 1.35% in the last year). In comparison, the national rate was 4.7% of pupils in 2023, and 2.8% of pupils in 2015. At the current growth rate in EHCPs, this 6% cap would be reached in late 2029. Uncapped, this would reach 14% by 2036. However, not everyone with an EHCP will transition to adult services. The threshold of eligibility for an EHCP, informed by the Children & Young People’s Act 2008, is not the same as those in adult social care (as set out by the Care Act 2014). Consequently, not all individuals who have an EHCP will meet the threshold for ongoing care and support from adult services.
From the data provided by participating councils, currently 21% of individuals with an EHCP in Year 13 transition onto an adult social care package by their 20th birthday. However, only five of the authorities participating in this programme were able to easily reproduce this data (where those in receipt of adult packages can be linked to whether they were historically or currently (if under 25-years-old) in receipt of an EHCP). This was recognised as challenging by many authorities (or not tracked at all) largely due to children’s and adult services often working on separate systems and databases (and within children’s, sometime social care and education both being on separate systems). As an EHCP can last until age 25, an individual may potentially transition to adult social care during their early-20s. From the same data, it appears that those who are going to transition are likely to do so before 25. On average, 64% of individuals will commence their adult social care support by their 20th birthday, whilst 36% will start between 20 and 25-years-old. It cannot be deduced from the data what proportion of the 36% had an EHCP. It also appears that as the proportion of Year 13s with an EHCP increases, the proportion of that cohort who transition to adults’ packages decreases. This suggests that the scale of the increase in SEND, or the situational conditions requiring additional EHCPs, does not translate directly to meeting adult social care eligibility. However, this isn’t a fully mirrored relationship – i.e. the proportion of individuals transitioning from the SEND system to adult social care is not staying the same. As an example, in 2021 there were 16,287 Year 13s with an EHCP, and the data from the participating authorities shows that an estimated 21% of these young people started an adult social care commissioned package before their 20th birthday. If this trend continues, then the estimated number of EHCPs for Year 13s will hit 28,000 by 2029, but it would be expected that only 17% of these young people would transition to adult service by age 20. If the EHCP rate continues to as many as 63,000 Year 13s by 2027 with an EHCP, it would be expected that 12% transition. There is also a proportion of individuals that start adult social care packages aged 18–20 who did not have an EHCP. Based on the data from the participating authorities, this was 20% of all 18–20-year-olds with support.
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Y13 Actual EHCPs (Estimated)
Y13 Forecast EHCPs (upper bound unmitigated current trend)
Y13 Forecast EHCPs (lower bound 6% Cap)
The lower bound forecast indicates that the number of 18–19-year-olds transitioning from children’s services to adult social care each year will increase by 25%. This will mean an increase from 4,800 a year at present to just over 6,000 in 2030 (in line with the population peak described above). This will then gradually decrease to an ongoing rate of 5,500 a year. This is driven equally by the increase in total population (with the anticipated volume of 18-year-olds expected to be 12.5% greater in 2030 than in 2024) and by the increase in EHCP volume – this will predominately be young people turning 18 in 2030 who have already received their EHCP by 2024. In comparison, the upper bound forecast sees the expected 6% EHCP cap point being exceeded in 2029, reaching 8,500 in 2037, equating to 77% more individuals transitioning to adult social care than at present. This is predominately driven by the rate of EHCP provision continuing as it has done for the past eight years, although the proportion of those transitioning would reduce by half under this forecast (from 24% to 12%).
Finding 3: Combining the above factors, the forecasting carried out for this programme shows that the number of transitions per year is expected to increase, resulting in at least 25% more people a year by 2030. When the above factors are combined (the 20% peak increase in all young person population and the 140% increase in EHCPs, with a declining rate of those who require adult social care support) a forecast number of transitions by year has been developed for this programme. Two versions of the forecast have been developed: a lower bound (more conservative estimate), and an upper bound (a less conservative estimate). For the lower bound forecast, the proportion of pupils with EHCPs was capped at 6% of the total pupil population. For the upper bound forecast, the proportion of EHCPs was not capped and is assumed to continue to grow at its current rate (although the larger the proportion of the pupils with an EHCP grows, the smaller the proportion of that cohort is then forecasted to meet adult social care eligibility).
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