• Expectation of outcome: The change in EHCP legislation has also resulted in a
• Alternative provision outside adult social care: Even if individuals in this cohort do not meet the threshold for receiving adult social care, they may still need some additional support to ensure they have the best opportunities to prepare for adulthood. There is likely to be a greater demand for other services such as housing, employment, and benefits. This is still an important responsibility for cross-departmental cooperation across the local authority, as well as working more closely with local partners. Central government departments, particularly the Department for Work and Pensions, may see this change in volume create different needs and challenges for their resources. • Remaining on an EHCP till 25-years-old: At present, an EHCP can remain in place until a young person reaches 25 years of age, whether or not that individual is in receipt of adult social care. For those who do not meet the threshold for adult social care, it may be that they will keep drawing on support through SEND for longer. This in turn would put more demand onto the already strained SEND system and create additional financial pressures for the local authority.
Figure 10: Forecast number of 18-and-19-year-olds transitioning to adult services annually
significant national increase in the number of SEND tribunals, whereby parents are taking the local authority to an appeal to contest the decision relating to an EHC assessment or EHCP. There are now nearly four times the number of registered appeals than in 2012, with 98% of these decided in favour of the parents or family lxxxiii . Whilst the same tribunal process does not apply in adult social care, this change in attitude and relationship with the local authority could potentially translate to either longer, more complex, and/or more confrontational Care Act assessments. There is likely to be a need for adult social care services to provide more staff and support to manage the greater numbers of assessments needed and the potentially more challenging relationships between parties involved. This was a concern raised by several senior stakeholders in the engagement carried out for this programme. Good practice may also become even more important to ensure good outcomes.
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Upper Bound (unmitigated current trend)
Lower Bound (EHCP rate capped at 6% pupil population)
This cohort will likely have the following impact on local authorities and their local system partners: • Assessment volume: From the data available for this programme, it is only possible to see which individuals are in receipt of packages of support, and not the additional number who had an assessment. However, from engagement with participating authorities, it is clear that more individuals are assessed than those who receive support, with some either not meeting eligibility or having their needs met through different means. For example, if 33% of 18-year-olds with EHCPs are assessed, this would equate to 75% more assessments being carried out by 2030 compared to now.
Finding 4: The number of individuals who will not transition to adult services but who will likely need additional support from the local authority and wider place system is also set to increase. As important as the number of individuals expected to transition to adult services is the group of individuals who are not expected to meet the threshold for adult social care. The lower bound forecast indicates that the number of 18-year-olds with an EHCP who will not transition to adult social care will increase by 67% from the current 14,574 to 24,344 by 2030. Whilst they may not be ‘transitioning to adult social care’, these young people will still be ‘transitioning to adulthood’. These individuals will have had a different level of support and experience during their teenage years than the current generation of adults – they will have experienced less of a mainstream education environment, greater support with everyday activities, and will potentially have had different conversations regarding future expectations for adulthood or what could be achieved for them. This is likely to therefore create a different set of challenges for how local authorities and their partners can best support these individuals.
Figure 11: Forecast of transitions into adult social care
Forecast of all transitions into adult social care
Forecast of Y13s with an EHCP not transitioning
Lower Bound (capped EHCP @6%)
Lower Bound (capped EHCP @6%)
Year
Upper Bound
Upper Bound
2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 2036/37
4,843 5,057 5,273 5,567 5,863 6,172 6,256 6,507 6,842 7,310 7,555 7,821 8,549
4,843 5,057 5,273 5,567 5,863 6,033 5,963 5,890 5,905 5,929 5,832 5,724 5,613
14,574 17,581 19,310 21,397 23,524 25,339 27,356 28,652 31,369 34,995 38,943 43,633 52,293
14,574 17,581 19,310 21,397 23,524 24,344 24,006 23,656 23,727 23,845 23,376 22,859 22,323
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