Finding 5: The forecast net increase in expenditure for support for 18–24-year-olds for adult social care is expected to be at least 40% more by 2030. Based on analysis of the 16 participating local authorities in this programme, in 2024 the average weekly cost of packages of adult social care support for 18–24-year-olds was £597.02 per week. This has increased by 7% since 2021. This is below inflation and is less than the average cost increase for the rest of the working age adults population by nearly a third over the same time period. It has been assumed in the forecasting for this programme that this will continue to increase at the same rate.
As shown in Figure 12, based upon all the factors presented above, the combined forecast indicates that the total net expenditure for support for 18–24-year-olds will reach £1.98bn for England by 2030 in the lower bound scenario. This is in comparison to a forecast of £1.63bn based solely on inflation of 2% each year, and 40% more than current expenditure. By 2036, forecast expenditure is expected to reach 71% more in the lower bound scenario, and 110% more in the upper bound scenario. The total gross expenditure on adult support for 18–64-year-olds in 2022/23 was £9.4bn, and for all ages and support reasons was £19.4bn. This increase of £584m by 2030 therefore represents an additional pressure equal to 3% of the current total adult social care spend.
The forecast net increase in expenditure for support for 18–24-year-olds for adult social care is expected to be at least 40 % more by 2030 By 2036, forecast expenditure is expected to reach 71 % more than current expenditure The number of transitions per year is expected to increase, resulting in at least 25 % more people a year by 2030
Summary Phase 2 of this programme will explore in more detail what the evidence indicates are the practical changes that should be made at a local and national level to deliver the improvements required for working age and lifelong disabled adults. Nonetheless, there is already strong evidence emerging from within the sector about how targeted, evidence-led improvement can help to offset the forecast rise in demand and expenditure. For example, in one London Borough, a new service has been created between the council’s children’s and adults’ directorates to support over 200 young people to seamlessly transition from one to the other. As a result, the council has seen a reduction in ongoing support at transition by 21% for those going through this new service, with greater involvement and satisfaction from the young person and their family.
Figure 12: Forecast total support expenditure on 18–24-year-olds (inflation assumed at 2% pa)
£2,970m
£2,425m
£1,000m £1,500m £2,000m £2,500m £3,000m
£1,998m
£1,981m
£1,414m
£0m £500m
Lower Bound (EHCP capped)
Upper Bound (unmitigated current trend)
Finding 6: The differences in the needs and support for this cohort are wider than most other age categories. As part of this programme of work’s cohorting analysis (detailed in Section 7), it was identified that individuals in the 18–25 age range showed such substantial variety in their different features (such as their setting type, package cost, change in cost, and primary support need) that there is little similarity between the young adults in this group. In fact, the differences in their needs and support are wider than most other age categories (many of which are identified in Appendix 1).
This is a notable finding for social care, as it is a group that is often considered together in processes and services. Most local authorities have dedicated Learning Disability or Mental Health specialist teams or workers, as a response to the differences in type of support and features outlined in the next section. Additionally, many councils will have a dedicated ‘transitions team’ focussed on supporting individuals before their 18th birthday as they look to leave children’s services and understand their potential eligibility and plans for adult social care. The analysis for this programme suggests that these teams would see a greater level of variety of individuals than other parts of working age and lifelong disabled adults’ operational services.
48 HOME
HOME 49 49
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs