07: Understanding the working age and lifelong disabled adult population
Introduction This report has so far:
Methodology Using data provided by the 16 participating local authorities on the working age and lifelong disabled adults they support, their demographics, and the packages of support they received over the last four years (2020/21–2023/24 inclusive), an evidence- based analysis was conducted of: • their reasons for requiring social care support • the volumes of individuals receiving different types of social care support • the costs associated • other factors which may contribute to need and outcomes, such as age, gender, and levels of deprivation in the local area • the extent to which any of these factors are staying constant or are changing The method used to analyse this information was a popular machine learning algorithm: k-means clustering. This type of artificial intelligence is able to analyse vast numbers of individual cases, and analyse what they have in common, or what links them. The output is then a prioritisation of various factors and a grouping of appropriate features (such as demographic features, costs, and the way costs are changing over time for an individual). This has enabled a rich and data-led articulation of the different groups or cohorts of people who receive support beyond one reason or individual factor. The cohorts identified reflect the total population of the working age and lifelong disabled individuals in receipt of adult social care, excluding a small proportion (approximately 3%) who do not meet the characteristics of these cohorts. Regardless of the focus – whether on age, package type, or other factors – the results of the algorithm consistently showed that the most significant trends emerged based on primary support reasons. Consequently, primary support reason features significantly in the definitions of the cohorts described in this section and in Appendix 1.
• Made the case for why a greater focus on improving outcomes for working age and lifelong disabled adults is important (Section 4) • Covered the key drivers behind rising costs of support (Section 5) • Looked at how demand from transitions into the system is likely to change in coming years (Section 6) The following section now uses both national and local data to highlight the key groups and trends within the current working age and lifelong disabled adults cohorts, to enable insight-led prioritisation and outcomes- focussed improvement. To better understand the working age and lifelong disabled adults receiving adult social care in a meaningful and non-anecdotal way, this programme conducted detailed analysis into the similarities and differences between different individuals and the ways in which they are supported. This provided a rich and data-led articulation of the different groups or cohorts of people who receive support beyond one reason or individual factor. The following section of the report provides a summary of the key findings from this cohort analysis and highlights the priorities for action and improvement for local system leaders to address the disparity in outcomes and cost identified. Opportunities for improving outcomes will be explored more fully in the second phase of this programme (taking place in 2025).
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