In summary, this analysis indicates that:
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The report has also shown in relation to the volum e, timing , and potential cost of increasing transitions of younger adults
There is still disparity between the health, employment, and social outcomes achieved by disabled adults in comparison to their non-disabled peers.
from children’s services over the next 10 years:
There will be a temporary 20% increase in the number of all 18-year-olds, peaking in 2030. The proportion of young people with EHCPs has increased by 140% and is still increasing. Whilst this will likely lead to an increase in demand, it is expected that most of this group will not meet the eligibility for ongoing adult social care support. Combining the above factors, the forecasting carried out for this programme shows that the number of transitions per year is expected to increase, resulting in at least 25% more people a year by 2030. The number of individuals who will not transition to adult services but who will likely need additional support from the local authority and wider place system is also set to increase. The forecast net increase in expenditure for support for 18–24-year-olds for adult social care is expected to be at least 40% more by 2030. Differences in the needs and support for this cohort are wider than most other age categories. Improvement activity between children’s and adults’ services can help to offset the forecast rise in demand and expenditure.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, to enable insight-led prioritisation and outcomes-focussed improvement of outcomes, an in-depth understanding of the key groups and trends within the current working age and lifelong disabled adults’ cohorts is necessary.
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These priority cohorts are:
LD Cohort Two: 40+-year-olds with high needs and whose care package is increasing slightly in cost
LD Cohort Three: 18–39-year-olds with high needs and whose care package is increasing slightly in cost LD Cohort Six: Individuals with high needs and whose packages of care are increasing significantly
This is not due to expenditure on support reducing . Support for working age and lifelong disabled adults has become the largest area of expenditure in adult social care, and this area of expenditure has also been growing faster than any other part of adult social care.
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Of the 12 main cohorts into which working age and lifelong disabled adults have been categorised, there are six key cohorts which appear to warrant particular attention for authorities seeking to improve outcomes and the financial sustainability of the support provided. These were prioritised due to the average package cost being greater than £1,500 per week and/or the rate of cost escalation being greater than £100 per year.
LD Cohort Four: Individuals with low levels of need and whose package of care is escalating in cost MH Cohort Three: Individuals with average levels of need whose packages of care are increasing significantly in cost PD Cohort Two: 40–65-year-olds with average levels of need and whose packages of care are increasing in cost
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Expenditure appears to be increasing due to the type of care which working age adults and lifelong disabled adults are receiving.
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