Appendix Q
Addendum 1
3. THREAT RISK ASSESSMENT DST
The N.C. Wildlife Habitat Threat Risk Assessment (TRA) tool is a spatially explicit DST that uses modeling to predict probability that specific threats will occur relative to terrestrial and aquatic habitats — specifically climate change and urbanization. This DST includes other types of threats that are not projected in time but whose occurrence on the landscape can create impacts or add to other types of impacts. Data for these static threats are updated periodically and the DST will also be updated appropriately. • The TRA tool will allow users to explore individual threats or a combination of threats in a spatial environment as well as being able to combine and weigh components in user- defined configurations to highlight specific threats and develop specific scenarios of future trends. • Users can assess the number of threats (occurrence), the proximity of threats, and their severity, or how well represented is a given threat within or in proximity to a parcel of land of interest. The TRA tool is intended to give managers, decision makers, and other users an accessible and flexible tool to help assess risks to wildlife populations, and ultimately, inform decisions. Details about the statistical analysis aspects of the TRA model are provided at the end of this user guide.
Components of the TRA Tool
The TRA tool evaluates threats within an Area of Interest (AOI). The boundaries of the AOI will fall within one or more HUC12s. The analysis considers how many threats are predicted to occur and the proximity of those threats to the AOI (e.g., occurrence) and measures the intensity (e.g., severity) of the threat within the AOI. Several threats can be modeled for a specific decade between 2000 and 2050.
Figure 7.
Results are interpreted using a rating matrix based on a scale of 0 to 1, where 0 to 0.5 indicates low to medium/moderate risk and 0.5 to 1 indicates medium/moderate to high risk. The Exposure Risk Rating image (see Figure 7) is a Bayesian comparison graphic that provides a visual representation of how to interpret the occurrence and severity ratings.
The following list of 11 threat categories represents 20 different GIS shapefile layers used
in the DST analysis.
10 of 2 7
2020 Addendum NC Wildlife Action Plan
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online