Table 3 Lifecycle of the Expansion
12
Q2 20
10
8
6
Q1 21
4
Q1 20
Q1 22
2
Q1 20
0
38.5
39
39.5
40
40.5
41
Average Weekly Hours
Description: • Table 3 plots the unemployment rate against average weekly hours in manufacturing on a quarterly basis since the beginning of the current economic expansion in September 2009. • There are four phases: 1. In the initial phase of an expansion, unemployment is stable and remains high while there is a sharp rise in hours per week. 2. In the second phase, the unemployment rate falls while hours per week tend to be relatively stable.
3. In the third phase, the unemployment rate is stable and hours per week decline. 4. A contraction occurs when unemployment rises and hours per week fallsa). Analysis:
• With respect to our current business cycle, the graph indicates that we continue to be in an expansionary phase. • Compared with the Fourth Quarter 2021, we see a modest decline in unemployment to 3.6% and an increase in the number of hours worked per week. • This development indicates that employers are having a hard time finding new employees so they are asking existing employees work more hours.
Central Wisconsin Report - Spring 2022
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