HORIZONS | BDO'S GLOBAL VIEWOF MID-MARKET DEAL ACTIVITY 31
NORDICS SOFTER FIRST QUARTER FOR DEALMAKING AS THE MARKET NORMALIZES POST-COVID
The negative trend in M&A activity seen since the all-time high of Q2 2021 has continued into 2022. Q1 2022 was weaker than prior quarters, but overall performance was in line with historical figures. A total of 64 transactions with a combined value of USD 5.5bn was recorded during the quarter, driven by significantly lower levels of activity from PE buyers. Trade buyers also reduced their levels of activity. Increased geopolitical risks, advance notice of increased interest rates, a weak stock market and a normalization of the market post-COVID all partly explain the recent developments in mid-market M&A. Although M&A activity in Q1 2022 was weaker than previous quarters, the numbers were in line with historical figures from the pre-COVID period. For comparison, the average quarterly deal value over the last five years is USD 5.8bn. And typically, the first quarter is not the most active period of the year. Overall in Q1 2022, the volume and value of transactions fell by 18% and 14% respectively compared to Q4 2021.
The continued decline inQ1 2022 is also explained by the lower deal volume (down by 47%) as the average transaction size increased by 16% versus Q1 2021. The drop represents the back end of the boom-and- bust pattern that we have seen following the pandemic. At the onset of COVID-19, deals were temporarily postponed which resulted in weak quarters which were then followed by an upsurge as societies opened again. The Nordic M&A market peaked inQ2 2021 and has been gradually falling back to normal levels since then. Reduced activity from both trade buyers and PE contributed to the quarter’s weak performance. The biggest fall was in PE activity, which did fewer deals (down 52%), but the average size was up 21%. The combined effect resulted in a big fall of 42% in PE deal value vs. the same quarter last year. Trade buyers also decreased their levels of M&A activity as well. Their total deal value decreased by 37%, with volume falling by 45% and the average deal size increasing by 15 %. As evidenced by the numbers, the recent downfall of the M&A market has been driven by PE buyers doing fewer deals, especially deals of smaller size. One possible explanation could be that PE firms have shifted their focus to new platform
BIG PICTURE
• Total deal value in Q1 2022 was 38% lower than the same quarter last year and 14% lower than Q4 2021, despite larger average transaction sizes • There was reduced activity from PE buyers and its overall share of volume and value fell slightly to 17% and 16% respectively • TMT, Industrials & Chemicals and Energy, Mining & Utilities were the sectors with the biggest deals volumes during the quarter.
PE/TRADE VOLUME &VALUE
160
12,000
140
10,000
120
8,000
100
80
6,000
60
4,000
40
2,000
20
0
0
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