F6
FARM & RANCH
THE NORTH PLATTE TELEGRAPH
SEPTEMBER 2020
Soybean acreage could increase in 2021
wheat prices and by exten- sion, wheat acreage. Farm Futures surveyed 1,044 respondents on July 14 to 27 via an email question- naire. Farm Futures is the signif- icant business information resource for large-scale U.S. farmers and producers. Online, apps, daily news- letters, webinars, seminars (including the Farm Futures (FarmFutures.com) provides business and management information to large-scale, high-income U.S. farm opera- tors. The information resource leads its market segment in producer preference. Farm Futures is a Farm Progress brand with extensive digital content and marketing re- sources. Farm Progress, by Informa Markets. Business Summit) and in print, Farm Futures
Price ratio favors beans Market incentives justify this move. The current new crop soybean – corn price ratio strongly favored soy acreage over corn through- out this summer. Chinese soy demand soared high- er in late May as the world’s second largest economy be- gan booking orders for new crop soybeans. Since June 1, China has booked 294.8 million bushels of 2020-21 soybeans. With Brazilian exportable supplies heavily depleted as soybean harvest approach- es in the U.S., soybeans may find enough favor in interna- tional channels this winter to justify a nearly 5% in- crease in soybean acreage next year. Contrary to recent trends
in falling wheat acreage, Farm Futures survey re- spondents indicated a shift from spring wheat acre- age to winter wheat in the August 2020 survey. If real- ized, a higher 2021 winter wheat acreage would reverse seven consecutive years of shrinking winter wheat acres. Excluding durum acres due to a statistical- ly insignificant response rate, other spring and winter wheat acreage is predicted to total 42.7 million acres in 2021, up 0.3% from 2020. A lower dollar and in- creased consumer demand for pasta amid the coronavi- rus pandemic reignited both domestic and international attention to U.S. wheat. As in- ternational wheat movement increases in the wake of the pandemic, export demand will be critical to supporting
experience under their belts. While ethanol and live- stock demand have struggled to break through pandemic plateaus, farmers are pre- dicted to plant 91.8 million acres of corn next spring. Given favorable planting and growing conditions, 2021 could be a chance for farm- ers to sow record-setting corn yields and volumes as demand continues to recover amid the pandemic. The recent run-up in soy- bean prices has made U.S. soy acreage a hot prospect in the commodity markets. Farm Futures respondents projected planting nearly 4.1 million more acres of soy- beans in 2021 compared to 2020, totaling 87.9 million acres. If realized, 2021 soy- bean acreage will be the third highest planted soy acreage on record.
By JACQUELINE HOLLAND Grain market analyst, Farm Futures ST. CHARLES, Ill. — An August 2020 survey con- ducted by the Farm Futures team found farmers across the country are eager to plant more soybeans in 2021. Survey respondents reported a slight decline in corn acre- age in favor of soybeans for next year’s crop as a recent uptick in soybean demand sparked a rally. Farm Futures respondents indicated planting 0.3% few- er corn acres in 2021-22 after demand destruction erod- ed 440 million bushels from the 2019-20 demand pipeline. While 2020-21 corn planting progress was largely un- derway when the pandemic caused corn demand to evap- orate, farmers now have over six months of pandemic
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