RESEARCH
25 Years of Dive Industry Research - Q4 2025: A Rebuilding Year Ahead by William Cline , Publisher & President for 35 years of Cline Group, a marketing, research and advertising consultancy specializing the scuba diving industry.
A FTER 25 YEARS of conducting this quarterly survey, I have learned that the most important signals in the dive industry are rarely the loudest ones. Revenue numbers tend to dominate conversations, yet they often reflect decisions made months earlier. Certifications, on the other hand, represent forward motion. They indicate whether new divers are entering the system and whether existing
gagement and confidence have already im- proved elsewhere. If revenue and equipment were the only measures we considered, 2025 might ap- pear flat at best. However, certifications present a materially different narrative. Certifications: The Structural Shift
In Q4, 22.2% of respondents reported certification activity was more or significantly more than the same period in 2024. Forty percent reported
divers are advancing within it. The fourth quarter of 2025 re- inforces that distinction clearly. If we focus only on revenue, the year appears uneven. If we look at certifications, however, we see structural improvement that carries far more long-term importance. Revenue: Stable to Soft, But Not Collapsing In Q4, 38.2% of respondents reported gross revenues that were less or significantly less than the same quarter in 2024. Another 30.4% reported results that were essentially unchanged. Only 31.4% reported increases. That distribution does not describe broad financial recovery. It de- scribes an industry that remains mixed, with many operators hold- ing ground and others still facing pressure. Equipment sales reflect even greater caution. Fifty-seven percent of respondents reported equipment sales were less or significantly less than Q4 2024. Only 22.8% re- ported improvement. Equipment
results that were the same, while 37.8% reported less. That balance is far healthier than equipment performance and signals stability returning to the front end of the system. Across the full year, Open Water certifications increased approxi- mately 25% in 2025 compared to 2024, with the strongest growth occurring in the second half of the year. That 25% increase is not incremental. It represents structural strengthening in new diver intake. Early in 2025, Open Water ac- tivity was soft across many oper- ators. Mid-year, results stabilized. In the second half, certification activity accelerated meaningfully. By Q4, the rebound was measur- able and sustained. The pattern was not accidental. It reflected renewed inflow of new participants into the sport. Every downstream revenue cat- egory in this industry depends on a steady inflow of new divers. Travel bookings, equipment pur-
remains the most sensitive category in our system. It responds quickly when customers hesitate and recovers only after en-
chases, continuing education courses, and instructor certifi- cations all begin with Open Water. When Open Water
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