RESEARCH continued
weakens, the entire system eventually contracts. When it strengthens, the system rebuilds. The U.S. Certification Snapshot The U.S. numbers reinforce the broader pattern. Based on
remain engaged long term. The late-year expansion in continuing education supports expectations that travel demand should remain stable or im- prove in coming quarters. It also suggests equipment
retailer responses and extrapolated across 986 U.S. dive retailers, the fourth quarter produced an es- timated 34,487 new Open Water certifications. In addition, there were 47,420 con- tinuing educa- tion certifica-
conversion may strengthen once the certification gains fully flow through the sys- tem. Travel Stability and Equipment Volatility Travel perform- ance in Q4 aligns with this inter- pretation. Forty-
tions, 775 instructor certifi- cations, and 14,954 resort or Discover Scuba experi- ences. Those totals provide scale. On average, that represents roughly 35 new certifications per retailer in Q4 and ap- proximately 48 continuing education certifications per store. Continuing education exceeded entry-level Open Water certifications during the quarter. That detail is significant. It tells us divers were not simply entering the system; they were progressing within it. A pipeline is not defined solely by new intake. It is defined by movement through stages of develop- ment.
six point three percent of respondents reported travel sales were the same as last year, while 28.0% reported increases and 25.6% reported decreases. Travel held steady during a period of uneven equipment performance. Equipment remains the lagging indicator. With 57% reporting declines in Q4, it is clear that many operators have not yet realized the fi- nancial benefit of the im- proved pipeline. Equipment conversion often trails certi- fication growth. This se- quencing is consistent with patterns observed repeatedly over the last two decades. Instructor Certifications: Expanding Capacity
Instructor certification activity increased in 2025. While 775 IDC certifications in Q4 may appear modest relative to Open Water totals, instructor growth expands capacity. It determines how many courses can be scheduled and how broadly new demand can be absorbed. When instructor certifications rise alongside Open Water growth, it suggests operators are preparing for sustained
Continuing Education: Engagement Drives Momentum Continuing education certifications are often the clearest signal that divers are active. When divers pursue advanced training, they are investing in their skills and preparing for further experiences. They are more likely to travel. They are more likely to upgrade equipment. They are more likely to
PAGE FORTY-NINE | SCUBA DIVING INDUSTRY
Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker