Gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the metal likely to challenge the $5 000 level.
sustainability for the US and, by extension, the dollar’s role as the de facto reserve currency in the future. With few viable alternatives, gold has hugely benefited from this. Philip Newman, Managing Director of Metals Focus, commented: “We are pleased to release Precious Metals Investment Focus 2025/2026, which looks at investment trends across gold, silver, and the PGMs. In 2025, precious metals markets experienced significant price appreciation, driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, trade
• Minor PGMs: Deficits across the minor PGMs are expected to narrow in 2026 on stronger secondary supply and softer demand in select sectors. Rhodium’s market will remain tight despite a smaller deficit, with prices forecast to average $7 500, up 23% y/y. Ruthenium is projected to average $780, up 5%, while iridium should rise modestly to $4 600 as its deficit nearly disappears. Extract from the report: Gold’s strength continues to reflect an extremely positive macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop for safe haven assets, coupled with concerns towards other safe havens. In our view, the single
policy developments, and shifting investor sentiment. Gold and silver were the clear beneficiaries, as declining real interest rates, persistent inflationary concerns,
most important factor has been uncertainty around US trade policy. The fluidity of tariff announcements and the prospect of further measures have complicated planning for companies and governments around the world and produced ever fatter macroeconomic tail-risks. This fuelled concerns that inflation in the US could prove stickier than hoped if tariffs keep import prices elevated and supply chains unsettled, potentially at the same time as growth is hit, cost pressures squeeze margins and uncertainty hampers capex. Combined, these reinforce a non-trivial stagflation
and renewed geopolitical tensions reinforced their safe-haven status. Central banks remained healthy net buyers, further underpinning market strength.” “Among the PGMs, platinum and palladium also saw sharp gains, supported by tighter market conditions, trade-related supply disruptions, and
Among the PGMs, platinum and palladium saw sharp gains, supported by tighter market conditions, trade-related supply disruptions, and speculative inflows.
speculative inflows. Although the longer- term fundamentals for palladium remain challenging, both metals benefited from the broader rally across the precious complex. The minor PGMs, meanwhile, continued to experience narrowing deficits as recycling improved and industrial demand eased.” “Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 remains constructive across the precious metals spectrum. Persistent policy uncertainty, ongoing fiscal challenges, and elevated geopolitical risks are expected to keep investor interest high. While volatility will remain a feature of these markets, underlying conditions point to another strong year, led once again by gold, which we expect to challenge the $5,000 level.” n
tail risk; historically a supportive backdrop for gold, as both a hedge against price instability and a portfolio diversifier. There are also mounting signs of cooling in parts of the US economy which, alongside the above-discussed uncertainties, have sharpened expectations for rate cuts. Lower real yields and a more benign policy rate path reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, sustaining interest in gold. Layered over this is concern over persistent fiscal deficits, the ongoing and rapid accumulation of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve. This raises questions about long-run debt
DECEMBER 2025 - JANUARY 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 13
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