MARKET & TRENDS
LOCAL ECONOMIES
Beat the Odds HOME PRICES IN MARKETS WITH A STRONG LOCAL ECONOMY WILL HOLD UP BETTER.
by Ingo Winzer
ith home prices much too high and a recession looming, potential homebuyers in many markets will be sitting on the sidelines for a while as sellers try to cash out. Unless the rules of economics have been suspended (as they were during the pandemic), home prices will come down. In some places, they’ll come down a lot. But some markets will hold up better than others because of a stronger local economy. Although investors will find many buying opportunities over the next few years, they’ll do best in markets with the best long-term economic prospects, though prices in these markets will fall the least. Here are 12 markets where population growth has been high, job growth is high, and a lot of jobs are in business services rather than in restaurants or tourism—businesses that will do poorly if a recession hits. I expect home prices to drop 10% in these markets, but other markets will do a lot worse. • Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor. The company’s Investors Metro Analysis shows the opportunity and risk in 200 local real estate markets at www. LocalMarketMonitor.com, including strategic analysis of all local ZIP codes. Winzer has analyzed real estate markets for more than 30 years, and his views on real estate markets are often quoted in the national press. Previously, Winzer was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company acquired by Dun and Bradstreet in 2007. Winzer is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and holds a master’s degree in finance from Boston University. W
1-Year Job Growth
3-Year Population Growth
0.9%
3.2%
United States
8%
5%
Austin, TX (pictured)
6%
6%
Raleigh, NC
6%
4%
Phoenix, AZ
6%
4%
Fayetteville, AR
5%
7%
Dallas, TX
5%
5%
Charlotte, NC
5%
5%
Jacksonville, FL
4%
6%
Houston, TX
4%
5%
Nashville, TN
4%
5%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
4%
4%
Greenville, SC
4%
3%
Spokane, WA
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC
36 | think realty magazine :: march – april 2023
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