9/17/18
Observer Effect (aka Hawthorne Effect) • In the social sciences and general usage, the effect refers to how people change their behavior when aware of being watched • How does a Casino workforce change their behavior(s) when the Cameras are Running and Recording 24/7? • How does it apply to say, Cage Cashiers and Card Game Dealers? • How does this or does this change the behavior of the Patrons?
To calculate "Probability” of LOSS we will use Bayes’ Theorem.
“Bill Gates had announced in 1996 that Microsoft’s competitive edge was its use of Bayesian networks.” Bayes’ 250Yr Anniversary Sharon Bertsch McrGrayne Date: 17 Feb 2014
P(B/A) x P(A) P(B/A)x P(A)+P(B/A’)x P(A’)
• P(A/B) =
“Bayes’ Theorem is valid in all common interpretations of probability and is applicable in science and engineering.”
Alan Turing used Bayes’ to break the German U-boats’ Enigma code during World War II
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Reverend Thomas Bayes (1701–1761)
Note: Using the Bayesian Calculator by Birnbaum for these Calculations.
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