Most conspiracy theories are complicated – that’s why they’re such good stories. Reality is (usually) simple... And if it’s raining and you see a flash of light outside, it’s more likely to be lightning than the local power station blowing up in a sea of sparks – or a UFO landing in the front yard. Often, conspiracy theories assume a level of secrecy, organization, and discipline that are impossible in the real world. A Deep State of Illuminati bureaucrats that is hell-bent on derailing the agenda of President Donald Trump would suggest that thousands of hyper-coordinated people are unified in total secrecy around a single agenda that they execute flawlessly and without anyone else knowing... But could a government – regardless of political party – that is so absurdly large (2 million employees) and complicated (budget: $4.8 trillion) ever muster the expertise, Use Occam’s Razor . This is the principle that the simplest explanation for something is usually the correct one. Most conspiracy theories are complicated – that’s why they’re such good stories. Reality is (usually) simple... If Little Johnny has a fever after going to the playground, he probably picked up a bad germ on the monkey bars. It’s unlikely that parent with COVID-19 on the bench nearby went over to Johnny and coughed in his face... Or that Johnny has an intestinal worm from bottled water he drank yesterday.
coordination, and organization to create a government within a government? The reality is that the federal government bureaucracy is ignorant of the intentions of whomever happens to be inhabiting the White House. It’s going to do whatever it’s going to do – which is the same as it’s ever done. One man’s Deep State is another man’s big bumbling blob of bureaucracy that will sabotage anyone with a notion of changing it. Of course, sometimes the more complicated explanation is true. To understand when, context matters. “When you hear hoofbeats behind you, in most cases you should think horses, not zebras – unless you are out on the African savannah,” explains mental model master Shane Parish of Farnam Street. The simple explanation was to believe that Bernie Madoff was an investment genius who could generate consistently strong returns for decades... But the reality – that he had created a $65 billion Ponzi scheme – took a lot of work to unravel. Remember that there is only one reality. In an era of deep fakes and fake news, reality can feel like a house of mirrors, or like a grown-up Choose Your Own Adventure book where we can decide our own reality. But reality is crazy already. In an age of conspiracy theories, we’re crazy on steroids. It’s up to each of us to stay anchored... to prevent something even worse.
24
October 2020
Made with FlippingBook Learn more on our blog