ANOTHER LIBERAL LANDSLIDE?
But remember, this election is not just about the president.
If Democrats win the White House, maintain control of the House, and win control of the Senate, then it will cause certain sectors to skyrocket. So let’s look at what PredictIt has to say about this. (FiveThirtyEight hasn’t published a Congressional forecast yet.)
Right now, PredictIt bettors think Biden has a 58% chance of winning, which is down from 63% in late July, but up from 55% at the end of August. Now let’s look again at FiveThirtyEight, which feeds every poll and many other pieces of data into a model that considers thousands of possible outcomes, weighs the likelihood of each, and ultimately spits out the odds of each candidate’s chance of winning. Here’s a chart showing the results since June 1:
Majority in House and Senate
$0.72
72¢
$0.48
48¢
D House, D Senate R House, R Senate
$0.24
24¢
Chance of Winning the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
$0
0¢
June JUNE 2020
August AUGUST
July
Biden 75.5 %
Source: PredictIt
80% 80%
Bettors on PredictIt have it as almost a pure toss-up whether Democrats can seize both chambers of Congress, giving this a 48% likelihood, as you can see in the above chart over the past 90 days. With the election less than two months away, Joe Biden is maintaining a consistent seven- or eight-point advantage in national polls, as well as leads in enough key swing states to win the electoral college. Similarly, polls of Senate races indicate that Democrats may be able to flip enough seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress.
20% 60% 40% 20% 40% 60%
Trump 25.0 %
JUNE 2020
Sep SEPTEMBER
Jun
Source: FiveThirtyEight
It has Biden somewhat more favored than PredictIt – but a Trump victory well within the range of possibility. In fact, on the eve of the last election, it had Trump 29% likely to win – and we all know what happened! But remember, this election is not just about the president .
American Consequences
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