There is recent precedent for this. In 2008, amid the global financial crisis, Obama beat McCain by 7% in the popular vote and won the electoral college 365 to 173. Not surprisingly, Democrats picked up eight Senate seats to capture the majority with 57, and 21 seats in the House to expand their majority. And just two years ago, in the midterm election, Democrats won control of the House by gaining 41 seats – their largest gain in 42 years. They also won the popular vote by a margin of 9%, which is the largest margin on record for a party that previously held a minority in the House. Now, think about what’s happened since then: the coronavirus pandemic, widespread social unrest, and the cratering of a booming economy... Whether you view this outcome with joy or horror, you need to prepare for the possibility of a liberal landslide on November 3, in which Democrats not only win the presidency but also the House and Senate, as they did in 2008, and for similar reasons: a terrible economy and great uncertainty leading angry, frightened voters to throw out the incumbents.
Back in May, I predicted a “liberal landslide.” At the time, it was quite the contrarian view. And it remains so today because nobody wants to talk about it... Democrats don’t want to talk about it because it could lead to complacency that hurts fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts (which they believe cost them the 2016 election). Republicans don’t want to talk about it because they so strongly dread this possibility, and also worry that this narrative could become self-fulfilling. Going into the 2016 presidential election, the polls had Hillary Clinton leading Trump by about 3 points up in the national vote, and she won by 2.2%. That wasn’t enough given where the votes came from. But there are two things to point out here... 1. Biden currently has triple the lead that Hillary did at this exact point four years ago. That’s a material difference. It’s the difference between Trump eking out a narrow electoral college win even if he loses the popular vote, versus a Biden landslide. 2. Hillary’s lead four years ago fluctuated. She was always leading, but sometimes by as little as 2 points, sometimes as much as 8 points. The thing about Biden’s lead is that it’s been steady for a number of months.
Remember, this is NOT a partisan belief. I’m operating dispassionately off my analysis. It has nothing to do with which candidate I want to win. A LIBERAL LANDSLIDE
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October 2020
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