Semantron 25 Summer 2025

Trickle-down economics

alarming threshold of 0.4 in 1993. Worringly, this was the first ever time the US Gini index went on an uptrend since the data was first recorded in 1963. Moreover, there weren’t any major tax cuts for the wealthy in the period between 1963 and 1980 in the US, suggesting that the hike in inequality was directly caused by Reagan’s Economic Recovery Act of 1981. Again, the idea of the US government at the time was to make the US working class earn higher incomes as the ‘ trickle-down ’ theory proclaims that the wealth accumulated by the top income bracket will go into hiring people and higher incomes in general. However, evidence shows that inequality has spiked, meaning that there was an increasing gap between the lower-income groups and the wealthiest. Through the 1980s, the reality was that the rich got even wealthier. Looking at empirical evidence, I used Pearson’s correlation 3 to examine the relationship between the US tax rate of the top income bracket, federal corporate tax rate, employment rate, GDP growth (YoY), government spending, and US interest rates. This is the method used to obtain r, the correlation coefficient, in the data gathered below.

Below are my findings after using the data from 1980 – 1992 to create a correlation matrix as well as highlighting some results with a best fit diagram.

Year

Corporate Tax Rate (%)

Top Income Tax Rate (%)

Gini Inde x

Employme nt Rate (%)

GDP Growth, YoY (%)

Government Spending (K, USD Billion)

US Interest Rates (%)

1980

46

70

34.7

60

-0.3

1.84

14

1981

46

70

35.5

59.1

2.5

1.89

18

1982

46

50

36.7

58.2

-1.8

1.94

15

1983

46

50

37.3

57.2

4.6

1.97

8.5

1984

46

50

37.3

58.8

7.2

2.1

9.5

1985

46

50

37.6

59.9

4.2

2.23

8.25

1986

46

50

37.6

60.6

3.5

2.33

7.75

1987

40

38.5

37.2

61

3.5

2.4

6

1988

34

33

37.7

62.2

4.2

2.43

6.88

1989

34

33

38.2

62.9

3.7

2.5

8.75

1990

34

33

38.3

63.2

1.9

2.56

8.25

1991

34

31

38

61.5

-0.1

2.56

7

1992

34

31

38.4

61.3

3.5

2.59

4

Figure 3 – Table of Data Used

3 Pearson’s Correlation in calculating the relationship between variables - https://fhashmi- tech.medium.com/pearsons-r-and-coefficient-of-determination-959bd6d37bb9 .

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