India: the next superpower?
Toby Polli
It is conventional to suggest that India will become the next super-power. 1 India has changed immeasurably since gaining independence in 1947. Its economy has boomed over the last half- century, 2 it retains a democratic system of government and it has emerged as a nuclear power. However, India still rankss 134 th on the Human Development Index with 97.7 million Indian citizens living in poverty in 2023. Ramachandra Guha goes as far to say that India will not and ‘should not even attempt to become a superpower’. 3 This essay examines whether it is inevitable that India will become the next superpower. 4 I conclude that, whilst India undoubtedly has the potential to do so, it faces substantial challenges, with a relatively divided society, relatively low levels of literacy and numeracy, an apparently corrupt political system and a confident China on its doorstep. India should be well placed to join China and the USA as a superpower. 5 China’s working -age population was 982.9 million in 2022 (but is believed to be shrinking) and its GDP is $17.52 trillion. 6 The USA’s working -age population is only approximately 210 million, and its GDP is $27.36 trillion. 7 1 See, for example, ‘Wayback Machine.’ 2020. Archive.org. 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200325123418/https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/pubfiles/Ind ia_webFINALsml_1.pdf. Consulted 26/7/24 and/or ‘India: Asia’s Other Superpower Breaks out - Newsweek: World News - MSNBC.com.’ 2006. Web.archive.org. March 28, 2006. https://web.archive.org/web/20060328182554/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11571348/site/newsweek/. Consulted 26/7/24. 2 India’s GDP is now $3.75 trillion. India’s GDP in 1947 was $20 billion - see India’s economy has come a long way in 75 years, but where next? | MoneyWeek. 3 Guha, Ramachandra. 2012. ‘India: The next Superpower?: Will India Become a Superpower?,’ Consulted 28/7/24 4 I define a super-power as a country able to project worldwide influence due to its economic, political and military power. 5 Russia, not a superpower as the USSR was, now has a working population of 75 million; its GDP is believed to be $2.27 trillion. 6 ‘China: Working-Age Population 1980-2050.’ n.d. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1219212/china-number-of-working-age-persons/. Consulted 14/8/24. Global Times (n.d.) ‘China Achieves 5.2% GDP Growth in 2023, Successfully Meeting Yearly Target,’ https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305536.shtml#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20China%27s%20annual %20GDP%20reached%20126.06%20trillion,5.2%20percent%20growth%20compared%20to%20the%20previ ous%20year. Consulted 26/8/24. 7 TRADING ECONOMICS (n.d.) ‘Working Age Population: Aged 15-64: All for the United States - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1977 Historical,’ https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/working-age-population- aged-15-64-all-persons-for-the-united-states-fed- data.html#:~:text=Working%20Age%20Population%3A%20Aged%2015- 64%3A%20All%20for%20the,record%20low%20of%20135212200.00000%20in%20January%20of%201977.
Consulted 14/8/24. ‘United States GDP 1990-2023 | Statista,’ Statista, July 5, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/188105/annual-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990/. Consulted 14/8/24.
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