India: the next superpower
India’s GDP. Such remittances boost the disposable income of those receiving them, helping to increase their quality of life and alleviate poverty. Secondly, by moving overseas to work, the diaspora leaves employment opportunities for those who remain in India. Finally, by reciprocating and accepting young foreign workers, India benefits from their skills and know-how. 13
As expected, with India’s economic development, its fertility rate has dropped to 2.0. Nevertheless, India’s demographics are healthy. As figure 2 shows, India enjoys a large, predominantly youthful population and is likely to do so for several generations at least. Whilst its male/female ratio is not quite 50/50, it is similar to China’s. 14 The Indian government has invested heavily in pre- and post-natal healthcare, particularly in poorer areas. The Janani Shishu Sharaksha Karyakram ( ‘ JSSK ’ ) scheme provides free health care services to pregnant women,
Figure 2 - India's Age Sex Structure Diagram
newborn babies and young infants. The provision of free drugs, vaccines and safer blood transfusions means that children and women are more likely to survive childbirth. UNICEF reports that the number of women and girls dying ‘due to issues related to pr egnancy and childbirth has dropped … from 103,000 in 2000 to 35000 in 2017, a 55 per cen t decrease’. 15 From a neo-Malthusian perspective, the lowering of Indian fertility rates is positive because, on average, 3,000 Indians die every day of starvation. However, as the economy grows, increased investment in AgTech will increase crop yields and enable India to feed its vast population. Already the government and private investors are funding AgTech- innovation, hoping to grow Indian farmers’ incomes by 25% to 35%. 16 McKinsey estimates that such innovation might add $95 billion to the Indian economy by 2030. 17 The birth of India’s AgTech sector has come at just the right time, as climate change inhibits food production elsewhere. Still , India faces substantial challenges if it wants to become a global superpower. Whilst India’s working-age population is projected to be 1.04 billion by 2030, unemployment and underemployment are a problem. As of June 2024, the Indian unemployment rate w as 9.2%, much more than the USA’s (3.2%) and China’s (5.2%). Further, under half of India’s urban workers have full -time jobs. 18 In 2023 it was reported that only 40% of India's working-age population worked or wanted to work; 19 and that 13 For example, the Migration and Mobility Partnership (MMP) Agreement signed in 2021 between India and the UK permits up to 3,000 young Indian workers between the ages of 18-30 to live and work in the UK for up to two years. India is reciprocating the arrangement, permitting young British professionals to work in India. 14 India’s male to female ratio is 106.506 men per 100 women – see India sex ratio 2024 - StatisticsTimes.com. China’s male to female ratio is 105.302 men per 100 women – see China sex ratio 2024 - StatisticsTimes.com. 15 UNICEF. n.d. ‘Key Data.’ Www.unicef.org. https://www.unicef.org/india/key-data. Consulted 26/7/24. 16 Namrata Dubashi et al., ‘How Agtech Is Poised to Transform India Into a Farming Powerhouse,’ McKinsey & Company, May 10, 2023, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/how-agtech-is- poised-to-transform-india-into-a-farming-powerhouse. Consulted 29/7/24. 17 Ibid. 18 Dugal, I. Where are the jobs? India's world-beating growth falls short ? Where are the jobs? India's world-beating growth falls short | Reuters. Consulted 21/08/24. 19 According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) – see Most populous nation: Should India rejoice or panic? - BBC News. Consulted 21/8/24.
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