India: the next superpower
parliamentary oversight of important legislative decisions. 26 It is for all these reasons and more that Sweden’s V -Dem institute declared that India is now an ‘ electoral autocracy ’ . 27
A properly functioning democracy is not necessarily a prerequisite for effective development. Not needing to appeal to an electorate permits governments to pursue consistent, long-term policies. China is an autocracy but has boasted exceptional annual growth rates. Singapore is a democratic example of the positive effect of stable and consistent government implementing long-term economic policies. 28 However, a problem for India’s development will be that, whilst it is a democracy, it suffers from high levels of corruption (or is, at least, perceived to do so). India ranked 93/180 on the World Corruption Index of 2023, with a score of 39/100. 29 While China too suffers from perceived corruption (ranked 78/180, with a score of 41/100) , it appears that, ‘… the corruption– growth relationship differs by the type of political regime, and the growth-enhancing effect of corruption is more likely in autocracies than in democracies. The marginal effect analysis shows that in strongly autocratic countries, higher corruption may lead to significantly higher growth, while this is not the case in democracies. Alternatively, democracy is not good for growth if there is a high level of perceived corruption. ’ 30 (Singapore placed 5/180 on the World Corruption Index, with a score of 83/100. 31 ) A further challenge arises out of the multiple fault lines along which Indian society is fractured. India’s vast land-mass is divided into 28 states, each individually governed, with 22 nationally recognized languages being spoken. While multilingualism can be beneficial, a single language helps to create a united culture: it may be that the lack of a single language will hold India back. 32 Further, India is among the most unequal countries in the world. Even as India’s GDP has increased, poverty and inequality in India has also increased. 33 Indian society is also deeply sexist; India has been called the 26 BBC News, ‘India Covid-19: PM Modi ‘did Not Consult’ Before Lockdown,’ March 29, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56561095. Consulted 13/8/24. 27 By Soutik Biswas, ‘‘Electoral Autocracy’: The Downgrading of India’s Democracy,’ March 16, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56393944. Consulted 13/8/24. 28 Stable government, implementing consistent, long-term (and largely free-market) economic policies, has enabled Singapore to enjoy GDP growth of 3,435.7% since 1950 . Even over the last 20 years, and notwithstanding decades of growth, Singapore’s GDP per person doubled – see GDP per capita (current US$) - Singapore | Data (worldbank.org). 29 ‘2023 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore India’s Results,’ Transparency.org, January 30, 2024, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023/index/ind. Consulted 15/8/24. It might perhaps be said that Indian citizens do not trust their state; and the restrictions on civil liberties indicate that the Indian state does not trust its citizens. Hardly ideal for sustained economic growth. 30 Saha, Shrabani, and Kunal Sen. ‘The Corruption–Growth Relationship: Does the Political Regime Matter?’ Journal of Institutional Economics 17. 2 (2021): 243–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137420000375. Consulted 13/8/24. 31 ‘2023 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore Singapore’s Results,’ Transparency.org, January 30, 2024,
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023/index/sgp. Consulted 15/8/24. 32 Friedrich, P. ‘Language and Politics in India.’ Daedalus 91.3 (1962): 543–59.
33 World Inequality Report 2022: India amongst the most unequal countries in the world, says report - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com). The report highlights that the top 10% and top 1% in India hold 57% and 22% of the total national income respectively while the bottom 50% share has gone down to 13%.
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