The global economy is expected to settle into a pattern of "steady" growth. Despite recent challenges such as high interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, the 3.2% growth rate for 2024 and 2025 indicates resilience as we settle into a new normal after the pandemic. The economic pick-up is not uniform. Developed economies will likely see a slight acceleration from 1.7% growth in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, while emerging markets and developing economies' growth rates are anticipated to remain stable. There's a sense of optimism emerging among business leaders. In the US, CEO confidence has risen for two quarters in a row, with recession fears fading significantly. European CEOs and China-based CEOs of US and European companies are also slightly more optimistic, with a more positive outlook on the short-term economic situation. However, cautious optimism in encouraged–market projections could shift notably depending on the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections. Global Economy Settles Into Cautious Growth Pattern
Real GDP Growth (% YoY)
Forecast
4.2%
3.6% 2.3% 4.7%
3.2% 1.8% 4.2%
3.2%
1.7%
2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024E 2025F
World
Advanced economies
Emerging market and developing economies
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence
58
56
54
54
46
42
Q4 2023
Q2 2024
H2 2023
H1 2024
H2 2023
H1 2024
United States
Europe
China
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2024. The Conference Board. Note: Measure of CEO Confidence is a barometer of the health of the US economy from the perspective of US chief executives.
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