Sustainability
CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY
scenarios depend on a high level of international agreement and co-operation. Neither of these scenarios offers a reliable foundation for making future decisions. The fact that significant change is already happening and climate risk is accelerating implies that the business-as-usual thinking of the gradualist school is unlikely. Likewise, the world is far from the pathway to net zero laid out by the normative scenarios, and geopolitics continues to increase costs and slow progress. There is another way of viewing the current situation – the complex mix. This recognises that we face two transitions simultaneously. The first is a high-carbon transition, characterised by decreasing demand for fossil fuels during the 2030s and beyond. The second is a low-carbon transition, marked by rapid growth in low-carbon energy, electrification,
and improved energy efficiency. Collectively, these shifts will drive the transformation of the global energy system. However, this will be a ‘messy mix’. Different countries and regions are starting from different positions and will reach different endpoints. Geopolitics will continue to be a significant factor. The world is unlikely to manage an orderly and just transition away from fossil fuels and already faces emerging issues around electricity security, critical materials, and supply chains for clean technology. Other factors, such as the role of AI, add further layers of complexity. In the short term, AI is expected to boost demand for fossil fuels to power data centres, but ultimately it could enable rapid electrification and improved energy efficiency. Believing in a fast-tracked, Paris aligned future or a more familiar gradualist approach may be comforting. However, neither is
likely to reflect the future we face. Instead, we need to accept the inherent messiness of energy system transformation. Doing so will help governments and businesses to tackle the challenges and grasp the opportunities created by this messy mix. This, in turn, will enable a quicker, more orderly, and fairer transition than would otherwise be possible. The Geopolitics of Energy System Transformation: Managing the Messy Mix by Michael Bradshaw will be published by Bristol University Press on January 30, 2026.
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Sustainable Development Goals
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