Renewable energy + energy management
From SAPVIA’s perspective Stakeholders across South Africa’s renewable energy sector joined the much-anticipated SAREGS 2025 Results webinar on 27 October 2025, marking a key moment in the sector’s collaborative efforts to align renewable energy project development with national grid planning. The 4th Annual South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS), conducted in partnership with the NTCSA, provides crucial insights into the state of grid capacity, project development, and emerging trends such as wheeling and corporate power procurement. This year’s results underline the sector’s rapid growth and the urgent need for coordinated infrastructure expansion to unlock stranded renewable capacity. Key findings Wheeling and o§-taker dynamics: The latest survey reflects a significant shi¤ towards wheeling arrangements and pri- vate power purchase agreements, following the approv- al of South Africa’s Wheeling Framework. Data collected provides visibility into corporate procurement trends and third-party grid access. Identifying grid congestion hotspots: SAREGS 2025 high- lights areas where grid constraints have delayed or stalled projects. These insights are expected to help the NTCSA and Eskom prioritise transmission upgrades in high-demand zones, aligning investment with confirmed project pipelines. Policy integration: The survey continues to feed directly into key national planning tools including the Transmis- sion Development Plan and the Congestion Curtailment Proposal, which aims to free up 3.4 GW of stranded capacity in constrained regions. The 2025 Renewable Energy Grid Survey also highlighted continued momentum and scaling across the sector. Total reported capacity planned now exceeds 220 GW. Installed capacity surged by 86 GW compared to 2024. Development-stage projects grew by 60 GW, signalling a robust pipeline. Hybrid systems now represent 46% of total contracted ca- pacity compared to 25% in the previous year. 190 additional contributors participated, reflecting expand- ing industry engagement. This year’s survey again reaffirmed the industry’s willingness to share project data to support coordinated transmission planning. To maintain commercial confidentiality, raw survey data remains under the sole management of the NTCSA’s planning team; SAPVIA and SAWEA receive only aggregated insights. “The SAREGS results demonstrate that the renewable energy industry is more than ready to respond to its allocation in the recently announced IRP 2025. The survey provides a data-driven view of where the transmission and distribution bottlenecks are and, more importantly, where transmission infrastructure development should be prioritised. Industry and the NTCSA are now better equipped to work together to unlock capacity where it’s needed most,” said Dr Rethabile Melamu, CEO of SAPVIA. “With the IRP and the Wheeling Framework now in place, these results provide the foundation for a more efficient and
Northern, Western and Eastern Cape but static in Gauteng. From the indicated readiness/timing of the planned projects by Type A, B or C, the NTCSA can also gauge timing of the need for new transmission substations to be built. Noting that main transmission substations (MTSs) typically handle about 1 400 MW of power per substation, Marais said the NTCSA can work out where new substations will be needed and when, also taking account of the technologies to be used in the respective projects and their particular demands/impact on the grid. Marais further noted a greater readiness from private sector players to provide ancillary services, which would include reserves, black start capabilities, and reactive power supply, using different technologies. As well as providing a valuable guide for the NTCSA, the annual SAREGS provides critical insights for planners, investors, IPPs, manufacturers, EPC contractors, and other market players. A potential concern In the Q&A session following the presentation of the results, Marais emphasised that a key focus for the NTCSA is strengthening the grid, to control voltage levels and voltage angles, with a further key focus on enabling grid flexibility. Without flexibility, the new input from renewables that can be integrated into the grid is limited. With regard to the recently released Integrated Resource Plan, IRP 2025, Marais confirmed that the survey showed renewable energy components of the plan could readily be met. And looking beyond the country’s preoccupation with supplying enough electricity to meet demand consistently and sustainably, Marais highlighted another potential concern. He pointed out that the near-term interest in renewable energy development amounts to 72 GW (on the upside), whereas the forecast load for the near term is, comparatively, 20 to 24 GW. This means the rollout of renewables projects will need to be contained to meet electricity demand; and/or the economy and in turn electricity demand will need to grow more strongly than is currently forecast: if electricity supply from new renewables build were to surpass demand, the value of the output (and return on the investment) would fall to zero. The results of the SAREGS are shared on the NTCSA website – this screenshot illustrates renewable energy projects planned to 2034, by technology and location.
DEC 2025 - JAN 2026 Electricity + Control
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