Projected yield for 2018 wheat harvest 13.7m/t which is below the five year average
Feed Wheat Futures Prices £/t
190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120
Data as at 30 September 2018 per AHDB
I am not sure any pundit can confidently predict how the pound will fare as we head toward March 2019 and our exit from the EU. Here in the UK we have seen a sharper focus on food security against a backdrop of Brexit, which has highlighted our vulnerability and reliance on imports. Perhaps, if other EU member states also experience this sense of vulnerability, it may provide some useful context in the negotiations for trade agreements between the UK and the EU - which would be mutual benefit of both parties. Our role as advisers is to appraise the risks to our clients businesses and identify strategies for how these risks can be mitigated. A common measure of risk used by advisers is an analysis of the pressures on businesses called PEST (Political, Economic, Social and Technological).
In my opinion, never before have arable enterprises felt the impact of so many and so varied a range of risk factors. Brexit, the changing social context of the millennial generation and the development of artificial intelligence in farm technology are all impacting how arable farmers are operating today. So whilst some farmers may take comfort in the market data forecasts and predicted strengthening prices for their 2018 harvest, in the short term, it is those who appraise their business risks, and take action to mitigate them, who will be best positioned to withstand and maximise the opportunities in the medium term which presented by the changing economic and political landscape.
Scrutton Bland have almost one hundred years’ experience in advising farmers, landowners and those working in rural and agricultural industries with tax, accounting, insurance, employee benefits, and development and diversification. Contact Nick Banks on 0330 058 6559 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
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