THE NUMBERS GAME
Wind and slower greens at Royal Portrush will favour those who adapt BY EDOARDO MOLINARI The Three Skills You Need To Win the Open
TO WIN AN OPEN, YOU MUST em- brace the unique test of golf. With unpredictable weather, players who manage their ball-striking and mental game throughout the week are the most successful. For these reasons, it’s often the toughest major to predict a winner, as many long-shot players have won the Open by playing creative shots and keeping a cool head. There isn’t any shot-by-shot data for Royal Portrush, as the last Open Championship there was in 2019, so to uncover what skills are re- quired to win there, I analysed the stats of recent Open Championships. With the help of Arccos Pro Insights, here are the three skills required to win the Open. Flighted shots: With current tour venues, playing in heavy winds is less common these days. At Royal Portrush in July, however, we can expect winds to gust over 30 kilometres per hour at some point throughout the week, re- quiring players to have command over their trajectory. Being able to hit the ball low and work it both ways is the key. Who does that suit? I looked at the players who have performed best over the past two years on tour in winds of 25 kph or more. Joaquín Niemann, Ras- mus Neergaard-Petersen and Shane Lowry top that list.
Adjusting quickly: Tour players are used to putting on greens over 12 on the Stimpmeter. At the Open, due to the high winds and the type of grass, the greens will be much slower, around 10-11 on the Stimpmeter. Players will not only need to hit putts harder than normal on Royal Portrush’s large greens, but slow- er greens break less than faster ones, so matching the slower speed with the line will take an adjustment. I looked at who over the last five years on tour has putt- ed best on greens slower than 11 on the Stimpmeter, and Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick are near the top, all gaining over 0.7 shots per round on the field on those greens.
Accurate drives: In 2019, accuracy off the tee played a massive role. Some of the holes at Royal Portrush are quite nar- row, and thick rough lines the fairways. Lowry, who won by six shots, drove it great that week, and an unusual per- centage of players at the top of the leader board were straight hitters, like Tommy Fleetwood and Lee Westwood. Six years later, some of the most accurate players off the tee in the field are Collin Mori- kawa, Aaron Rai and Daniel Berger. EDOARDO MOLINARI , a former US Amateur champion, Ryder Cupper and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s Chief Data Strategist.
PLAYERS I LIKE AT ROYAL PORTRUSH
Fleetwood and Lowry excel in these categories, and as Europeans who grew up on links courses, they have years of experience in these conditions. Lowry, of course, won here in 2019, and Fleetwood was runner-up. Fleetwood is long overdue for a major, and this course couldn’t set up better for him, as long as the putter behaves. I also like Niemann and Neergaard-Petersen as they are great players in the wind, and both are having nice seasons so far. Don’t know Neergaard-Petersen too well yet? He’s one of the top players on the DP World Tour; remember what I said about long shots at the Open!
60 GOLF DIGEST SOUTH AFRICA
JULY/AUGUST 2025
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