HOUSINGNEWS REPORT
MY TAKE
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY DECADE FIGURE 7.2 Household Growth by Decade (Millions) HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY DECADE (MILLIONS)
Carolina and surrounding states the growth engine.
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6. Renting, which will take market share. Eighty percent of the tremendous number of people passing away own their home, making it very difficult to prevent homeownership from falling. With mortgage interest and property taxes on most homes already less than the standard deduction, the tax benefits of homeownership have been greatly reduced. The foreclosure scars of the last recession haven’t faded either. People want to own their own home but, more than ever, are going to proceed more cautiously, waiting until they are confident in their job and savings before taking on a mortgage. Our best estimate is that homeownership will fall to 60.8 percent in 2025. These are just some of the highlights from a book Chris Porter and I just published called Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses . It comes with 100 color charts and 2 tools for making demographic analysis much easier: 1. Define each generation by decade born . Every generation will be 10 years long. The math will be easy – those born in 1980 turn 37 this year. The generations will have far more in common than current generational definitions that can be up to 20 years long. It will make it easier for you to
14.7 14.6
14
14.0
12
12.5
12.0
10
8
6.7
6
4
1966–1975
1976–1985
1986–1995
1996–2005
2006–2015
2016–2025
YEAR Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data. Note: colors based on generation in their 20s. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data. Note: colors based on generation in their 20s.
FORECASTING 5.2 MILLION MORE HOMEOWNERS BY 2025 FIGURE 8.4 Homeowner Growth by Generation (Millions), 2016–2025 FORECASTING 5.2 MILLION MORE HOMEOWNERS BY 2025 Homeowner Growth by Generation (Millions), 2016-2025
1950s Innovators 1940s Achievers 1930s Savers Pre- 1930s
-2.2
-4.1
-3.2
-1.1
1990s Connectors 1980s Sharers 1970s Balancers 1960s Equalers
0.7
0.6
2.8
5.4
6.2
2000s Globals
0.9
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
HOMEOWNER GROWTH (MILLIONS)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting,
ATTOM Data Solutions • P12
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