THE MAKINGS OFA
RECESSION AND FINANCIAL CRISIS
As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is...
What actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when?
The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the U.S. is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession. There are 10 reasons for this: 1. The fiscal-stimulus policies that are currently pushing the annual U.S. growth rate above its 2% potential are unsustainable. By 2020, the stimulus will run out, and a modest fiscal drag will pull growth from 3% to slightly below 2%.
2. Because the stimulus was poorly timed, the U.S. economy is now overheating, and inflation is rising above target. The U.S. Federal Reserve will thus continue to raise the federal funds rate from its current 2% to at least 3.5% by 2020, and that will likely push up short- and long-term interest rates, as well as the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, inflation is also increasing in other key economies, and rising oil prices are contributing additional inflationary pressures. That means the other major central banks will follow the Fed toward monetary-policy normalization, which will reduce global
By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa
American Consequences 23
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