humanity and most life on Earth from the climatic after-effects of an all-out nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. One climate-modeling scenario had the ozone layer disappearing, while another had the entire planet freezing in a long “nuclear winter” due to the smoke and soot blocking sunlight. Jonathan Schell, who promoted these fears in The New Yorker , concluded that the only solution was to abolish nation-states and institute a global government – presumably run by someone like himself. No one adopted his proposal, fortunately, since it turned out that the climate models were either flat-out wrong or absurdly pessimistic, and the threat receded further when the United States and the remnants of the Soviet Union eliminated more than 80% of their nuclear warheads. Howmuch to worry: Not at all. Nuclear war would be horrible, of course, but it wouldn’t wipe out humanity. And for all the fears of nuclear weapons, they’ve so far proven a wonderful deterrent to war. The era since 1945 has probably been the most peaceful in history. What to do about it: Keep reducing the world’s nuclear arsenals. For all the fears of nuclear weapons, they’ve so far proven a wonderful deterrent to war. The era since 1945 has probably been the most peaceful in history.
in the 1970s and 1980s (the heyday of the Irish Republican Army and Basque separatists in Spain). Some terrorists may eventually strike with a WMD, with devastating local impact, but it would hardly be an existential threat. Why would it threaten the existence of any nation, let alone civilization? Nations have routinely endured far, far worse casualties from wars, epidemics, and natural disasters. If, as the late Sen. John McCain once said, terrorism is the “transcendental challenge of the 21st century,” that just shows how much safer this century is than all the previous ones. Howmuch to worry: Not much, since an attack is unlikely – and really unlikely to happen near you. What to do about it: Not a whole lot beyond what’s already being done. In fact, we’re already wasting money on programs with no proven effectiveness.
NUCLEARWINTER As the energy crisis disappeared in the early 1980s, doomsayers found new work by pivoting to another threat: the extinction of
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