Manhattanites have had to cope with a two-foot rise in sea level and a seven-degree-Fahrenheit increase in temperature (due to the urban heat-island effect from buildings), which are roughly equivalent to the gloomier planetary forecasts for the rest of this century from global warming. Yet Manhattan, far from being swamped by the sea, has expanded thanks to the landfill added along the shoreline. The population is larger and healthier than ever, and the death toll from summer heat waves has plummeted thanks to air-conditioning. Adapting to climate change costs money, but it’s not an economic catastrophe. In fact, for now and the next few decades, there’s a net economic benefit from the rising level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere because it stimulates plant growth and improves agricultural productivity (as well as promoting the growth of grasslands and forests in what used to be barren land). Economists calculate that these benefits will eventually be outweighed by the rising costs of global warming in the second half of this century, assuming that by then we haven’t figured out how to forestall it. But by then humans around the world will be far wealthier than today. Extrapolating from long-term trends, it’s a good bet that the average person’s income in 2100 will be at least be at six times higher than today. So our descendants will be much better equipped than we are to deal with any challenges from a warmer world. They’ll
have far more resources to reduce pollution, conserve wildlife, and improve public health. People’s well-being in 2100 will depend much less on the temperature than on their income, so our main task is to make sure that we don’t adopt policies that stifle economic growth – like much of the green agenda. Howmuch to worry: Climate change is hardly the biggest problem on earth – the world’s poor have more pressing concerns – but it’s worth studying, particularly the climate- engineering technology to deal the worst- case scenarios. If the climate suddenly starts warming much more quickly than expected, we should know how to quickly cool it down, perhaps by injecting particles into the atmosphere that mimic the cooling effects of a volcanic eruption. What to do about it: Support research into climate-engineering and new technologies to bring down the cost of low-carbon energy sources. Encourage the switch from coal to natural gas (that means encouraging fracking) and nuclear power, but don’t dole out corporate welfare to windmills and solar panels and other “sustainable” sources that can’t actually sustain themselves without massive subsidies or laws forcing consumers to use them. They’re still too expensive, especially for the nearly one billion people who are without electricity. Those people need cheap fossil fuels, and it makes no moral sense to make them sacrifice today in order to keep temperatures slightly cooler in 2100 for their wealthy descendants.
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