Table 4 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) Line Percent Change at an Annual Rate 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 1 Gross Domestic Product Percentage Points at Annual Rates 7.0 -1.6 -0.6 3.2 2.6 1.1 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures 2.14 0.91 1.38 1.54 0.70 2.48 3 Goods 0.55 -0.02 -0.61 -0.08 -0.01 1.45 4 Durable Goods 0.44 0.64 -0.24 -0.07 -0.11 1.32 5 Nondurable Goods 0.12 -0.66 -0.37 -0.01 0.09 0.12 6 Services 1.58 0.93 1.99 1.63 0.72 1.03 7 Gross Private Domestic Investments 5.14 0.98 -2.83 -1.80 0.79 -2.34 8 Fixed Investment 0.12 0.83 -0.92 -0.62 -0.68 -0.07 9 Nonresidential 0.17 0.98 0.01 0.80 0.52 0.10 10 Structures -0.35 -0.11 -0.34 -0.09 0.38 0.29 11 Equipment 0.10 0.55 -0.11 0.53 -0.18 -0.39 12 Intellectual Property Products 0.42 0.54 0.46 0.36 0.33 0.20 13 Residential -0.05 -0.15 -0.93 -1.42 -1.20 -0.17 14 Change in Private Inventories 5.01 0.15 -1.91 -1.19 1.47 -2.26 15 Net Exports of Goods and Services -0.16 -3.13 1.16 2.86 0.42 0.11 16 Exports 2.37 -0.53 1.51 1.65 -0.44 0.54 17 Goods 1.62 -0.58 1.18 1.38 -0.62 0.75 18 Services 0.74 0.06 0.33 0.26 0.18 -0.21 19 Imports -2.53 -2.60 -0.35 1.21 0.86 -0.43 20 Goods -2.20 -2.38 0.05 1.19 0.76 -0.43 21 Services -0.33 -0.22 -0.41 0.02 0.10 0.01 22 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investments -0.16 -0.40 -0.29 0.65 0.65 0.81 23 Federal 0.01 -0.36 -0.22 0.24 0.37 0.49 24 National Defense -0.20 -0.33 0.05 0.17 0.08 0.21 25 Nondefense 0.21 -0.03 -0.28 0.07 0.29 0.28 26 State and Local -0.17 -0.04 -0.06 0.41 0.29 0.31 Bureau of Economic Analysis Description: • The above table decomposes percent changes in Real GDP into its components (consumption, investment, government, and net exports) and more specific subcomponents. Analysis: • Table 1 showed that Real GDP increased by 1.1% from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023 on an annualized basis. Here we are looking at quarterly percentage changes on an annualized basis, breaking down the numbers to reveal how components and subcomponents of Real GDP contribute to these percentage changes. • Kevin Bahr’s report evaluates the components that contributed to the 1.1% growth of Real GDP in Q1 2023. Personal consumption remains very strong with an increase of 2.48% since Q4 2022 with inventories having the largest negative impact on Real GDP with a -2.26% reading.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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