17of 21 in this scenario is obtained from the industrial output value and energy intensity, while the energy structure is set to change linearly, where the industrial output value is fitted to the model curve using SPSS software. To avoid the effect of energy intensity effect on CO 2 emissions reduction, the energy intensity is assumed to be the same as in 2016. The scenario projection results are shown in Figure 7. China ’ s waste paper recycling rate to 74% in 2035 with reference to Europe ’ s waste paper recycling rate of 74% in 2020, and assumes a linear increase in the waste paper recycling rate from 2020 to 2035. For the low carbon scenario II, with reference to the requirements in the outline of the “ 14th five-year plan ” and the 2035 visionary goals for national eco- nomic and social development of the People ’ s Republic of China issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in 2035 is set to be about 20% [55], the proportion of coal consumption is within 49%, natural gas is more than 13%, and oil is about 16% [56]. The total energy consumption of the papermaking industry in this scenario is obtained from the industrial output value and energy intensity, while the energy structure is set to change linearly, where the in- dustrial output value is fitted to the model curve using SPSS software. To avoid the effect of energy intensity effect on CO 2 emissions reduction, the energy intensity is assumed to be the same as in 2016. The scenario projection results are shown in Figure 7.
Forests 2022 , 13 , 1856
Figure 7. Prediction of CO 2 emissions from life cycle of paper products under the low carbon sce- nario. Figure7. Prediction of CO 2 emissions from life cycle of paper products under the low carbon scenario. From the predicted results, under the existing policy, CO 2 emissions from paper products in China’s papermaking industry will peak around 2025 at about 223 × 10 6 t, and the peak trend will be very smooth, with CO 2 emissions fluctuating only within 1 × 10 6 t from 2023 to 2026. In general, improving the energy mix and increasing the recycling rate of waste paper can curb CO 2 emissions throughout the life cycle of paper products. The projections of the baseline scenario show that, under the existing policy background, the systematic and continuous adjustment of the industrial structure of the papermaking industry in China since the “12th Five-Year Plan” has achieved significant results. The emissions reduction effect of low-carbon scenario II based on energy consumption structure is better than that of low-carbon scenario I based on waste paper recycling rate, and the difference in CO 2 emissions reduction between the two is relatively minor. The projection results of low carbon scenario III show that simultaneously improving the energy mix and increasing the waste paper recycling rate are more effective in reducing total CO 2 emissions. Compared with the baseline scenario, the CO 2 emissions reduction of the whole life cycle of paper products from 2021–2035 increases from 49.04 × 10 6 t to86.82 × 10 6 t, which is close to theCO 2 emissions of the pulp and paper stage in 2003–2004, and the emissions reduction contribution rate is also as high as 41.63% in 2035, which is more effective than the effect of low carbon scenarios I and II. In a low-carbon context, the papermaking industry, as a traditional high-energy-consuming and high-emissions industry, can achieve a faster and more effective low-carbon development path. From the predicted results, under the existing policy, CO 2 emissions from paper products in China ’ s papermaking industry will peak around 2025 at about 223 × 10 6 t, and the peak trend will be very smooth, with CO 2 emissions fluctuating only within 1 × 10 6 t from 2023 to 2026. In general, improving the energy mix and increasing the recycling rate of waste paper can curb CO 2 emissions throughout the life cycle of paper products. The projections of the baseline scenario show that, under the existing policy background, the 5. Conclusions From two dimensions and four stages of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing carbon sequestration, we propose the following emissions reduction strategy for the whole life cycle of paper products (Figure 8). (1) The raw material acquisition stage. Combined with the CO 2 emissions accounting and scenario prediction results in this paper, the pulp and paper stage is the stage with the largest share of emissions in the papermaking industry (over 70%). Its energy structure adjustment is the top priority for the low-carbon development of the papermaking industry. Specifically, we propose the following: Firstly, increase the application of cogeneration technology in the papermaking industry. Through cogeneration technology, paper companies can use the steam generated for power generation
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