Energies 2023 , 16 , 746
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should deliver 36–39% lower energy consumption by 2030 in comparison with expected levels. Additionally, a proposed revision of the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) suggests tightened requirements for annual energy savings: for 2024–2030, the annual EEI should be increased from 0.8% to 1.5% [6]. Moreover, the EU aims to cut CO 2 emissions by strengthening natural carbon sinks: 310 MtCO 2 /a should be absorbed and stored by 2030. The ambitious EU policies affect the PPI that is the fourth largest industrial energy user and the fifth largest CO 2 emitter after the steel and iron, cement, chemicals and petrochem- icals, and aluminum sectors [7]. Unlike other industrial sectors, the PPI uses significant amounts of renewable energy: nearly 60% of all used fuels were bio-based in 2019 [8]. However, there is still 1.3 EJ of gas, 1.1 EJ of coal, and 0.2 EJ of oil in the PPI’s fuel mix globally [8]. The PPI has notable potential to contribute to the emissions reduction. Many studies claim the sector can significantly improve its energy efficiency [9–12]. Substantial amounts of fossil fuels in processes and energy production can be replaced with bio-based alternatives [13,14]. Recent publications suggest that pulp mills may provide a platform for negative emissions using bioenergy carbon capture and storage or utilization (BECCS/U) technologies [15,16]. Due to the availability of wood residues and excess energy, many mills can produce biomaterials and biofuels or e-fuels that are highly needed in sectors that are difficult to electrify [17]. The aim of this study is to improve the understanding of the decarbonization prospects of the European PPI and critically evaluate the effects of various policies of the upcoming EU Green Deal on business environment and decarbonization opportunities for the PPI. The study considers the following issues: (1) a required investment rate (the approximate renewal rate) for several possible net-zero target years of industrial CO 2 emissions in the PPI, (2) opportunities to cut CO 2 emissions within the PPI and changes caused by possible incentives to create negative emissions to outline what should be changed from a policy point of view to enable an efficient decarbonization of the PPI, and (3) differences between developing countries and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The studied decarbonization prospects focus on industrial operations of the European PPI, leaving, for example, offsite electricity production, transport, and forest management outside the scope. It is expected that the energy and transport sectors will decarbonize in the future, and harvesting of forest by the PPI does not surpass the annual growth rate. 2. Materials and Methods Evaluation of development opportunities requires understanding of the current state. This section briefly introduces the current state of the European PPI, presents the methods utilized in this study, and introduces the used data sources and background assumptions. 2.1. Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions in the European Pulp and Paper Industry The current status of the European PPI is presented in Table 1. The presented values were based on the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI) database presenting the situation in 2020 [18]. The data covered ~91% of European pulp and paper production, and thus, the values were scaled to cover the whole of Europe.
Table1. Current status of the European pulp and paper industry. Data from CEPI [18].
Paper/Board Production (Mt paper /a)
Electricity Consump- tion/Production/Sale (TWh/a)
Fossil Fuels 1 (PJ/a)
Fossil/Biogenic CO 2 Emissions 2 (MtCO 2 /a)
Market Pulp Production (Mt pulp /a)
Biofuels (PJ/a)
7 34/92 1 87% natural gas, 7% coal, 4% fuel oil, and 2% other fossil fuels. 2 Fossil emissions include industrial CO 2 emissions. Biogenic CO 2 emissions are estimated utilizing fuel mix and emission intensity of 112 kgCO 2 /GJ for biofuels. 98 104/56/ − 13 491 829
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