Energies 2023 , 16 , 746
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of biomass. Chemical pulp mills represent mill types that can already meet most of their energy demand by bio-based fuels. If a chemical pulp mill is integrated with a paper mill, the energy consumption of the unit increases, and current mills typically require fossil fuels in addition to biofuels. The direct effect of EU ETS is low in the case of mechanical pulp mills because most of those mills cover their energy demand largely by purchasing electricity. However, the EU ETS affects indirectly also the prices of purchased electricity and the costs of transportation. The production costs of pulp and paper vary significantly, and typically, those costs are not publicly available. RISI [37] presents that the production cost for paper in Europe could be around EUR 500/ton, and hence, the EU ETS can increase the costs notably in some mills. It should be noted that at the moment, energy-intensive industries receive a significant amount of free emission allowances to secure competitiveness, which may change in the future. Moreover, the high EU ETS prices can increase competition on biomass that does not belong to the EU ETS. The EU ETS is not the only factor affecting the energy use of the PPI at the moment. The prices for fossil fuels are expected to rise. Electricity prices are currently unusually high, but future development remains to be seen. In addition to the EU ETS, other factors may influence the availability of bio-based raw materials. Ambitious targets for saving and restoring biodiversity may affect the markets for raw materials. The EU has published a biodiversity strategy, which expands protected land and sea areas to 30% in Europe [38]. Moreover, there is a target to cut a significant amount of CO 2 emissions by strengthening natural carbon sinks. The targets have led to discussions on the acceptable harvesting rates. 3.1.2. Required Investment Rates for Net-Zero Target Years of Industrial CO 2 Emissions The required renewal rates for different net-zero target years in the European PPI were calculated assuming that the new-built or renewed capacity is fossil-free. The results presented in Table 3 show that decarbonization of the sector within the next 10–20 years requires large annual investments. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 requires moderate but continuous annual improvements. The energy efficiency of existing technologies and processes increases continuously, and new opportunities come into the markets. Thus, the sector has an opportunity to move toward significantly more sustainable operation. Despite that, it should be noted that the pulp and paper mills have long lifetimes, and the renovation rate is slow. A typical technical lifetime of a mill is between 30 and 50 years, and thus, the renewal rate in Europe is roughly 2–3% of the capacity per year. The fossil CO 2 emission reduction within the PPI cannot be considered as a straightforward task. The annual renewal rates will vary depending for example on the global economy. In addition, someCO 2 sources are significantly easier to eliminate than others; for example, switching to electric dryers does not require large changes in the mills, whereas renewal of the energy system of a whole mill is a huge investment. The following sections will evaluate the decarbonization opportunities and potential.
Table3. Required renewal rates for achieving carbon neutrality in different net-zero target years.
Net-Zero Target Year Required renewal rate
2030 9.1%
2040 4.8%
2050 3.2%
3.2. Reduction of Energy Consumption The lion’s share of the CO 2 emissions of the PPI industry originates from energy production, and therefore, a decrease in energy consumption is key in emissions reduction. The energy consumption of the sector depends strongly on the production volume and mix. Energy can be saved by EEI, for example, by recovering waste heat and by material efficiency improvement, but also the production mix and volume of the sector affect the energy consumption.
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