Energies 2023 , 16 , 746
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3.2.1. Changes in Production Volume and Mix The total production volume in the European PPI has been rather stable during the last 10 years, but the structure has changed (Figure 3). The share of wrapping and packaging materials in paper production increased from 40% to 59% between 2000 and 2020, and the share of graphic papers dropped from 49% to 28%. It can be expected that the trend will continue. Typically, the production of packaging materials consumes around 20% to 30% less energy per ton than the production of graphic papers. Thus, the structural change has an effect on the energy consumption. If the total production volume is kept constant, and the share of packaging materials increases to 75% by 2050, the expected annual heat and electricity savings due to changes in the production mix is roughly 4%. Increased utilization of recycled fibers in paper production has enabled lower energy consumption in the European PPI, but the recycling rate is already high, and no major savings are expected due to increased recycling rates [39].
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Figure3. Development of pulp and paper production in the European pulp and paper industry. Data from FAO [24].
The structural changes of the PPI are not limited to changes between conventional pulp and paper grades. The sector has become interested in widening its product portfolio, which may affect notably the energy consumption of the whole sector. For example, if the sector starts to produce hydrogen-based products, the energy consumption of the PPI will increase notably. One illustrative example of the ongoing transition is the UPM Leuna biorefinery in Germany [40]. The plant will start to produce wood-based chemicals in 2023. If the biorefinery is statistically included in the PPI, the energy consumption of the sector will increase, whereas energy demand in the chemical sector decreases as the biorefinery replaces current production. This highlights the challenge of setting energy savings targets for sectors. The possible future products will be discussed in Section 3.4. 3.2.2. Energy Efficiency Improvement The EEI has been considered the most cost-effective way to reduce energy use and relatedCO 2 emissions [41]. Several studies have investigated energy savings potential through EEI measures, and for example, Moya and Pavel [42] suggest that the European PPI can cut its energy consumption cost effectively by 14% (~190 PJ) between 2015 and 2050, and the CEPI [43] claims that EEI can lead to a 7 MtCO 2 /a emission reduction by 2050. In addition to allowing the reduction of fossil fuel use, the EEI may enable the use of generated biomass elsewhere. Table 4 presents the development of specific energy consumption in the Finnish PPI, which illustrates the continuous EEI. In spite of the EEI, high-quality requirements may increase the consumption, as in the case of mechanical pulp. Updating the existing mills to operate with the currently best available technologies can cut energy demand notably, but emerging technologies are expected to enable even larger cuts;
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