Energies 2021 , 14 , 1161
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Following, the values of fuel consumption are estimated. Fuel is used to cover the in- dustry’s heat demands and produce electricity (excess electricity is sold). The heat demand is the main driver of fuel consumption. For each year analyzed, the ratio between the total heat consumption by the industry in Austria and total fuel consumption was calculated ( α y , Equation (10)) from the values reported each year by Austropapier ( H y , data , kWhand F y , data , kWh, respectively) [9,30–34], and used to calculate the amount of fuel needed to cover the heat demands calculated previously, according to the equation (Equation (12)). Similarly, the ratio between the values of electricity consumption ( E y , data , kWh) and fuel consumption was calculated ( β y , Equation (11)). The time evolution of α and β from 2009 to 2018 is presented in Figure 6.
H y , data F y , data E y , data F y , data
(10)
α y =
(11)
β y =
Figure6. Evolution of α and β from 2009 to 2018 [9,30–34].
The prediction of the total fuels used ( F y ), and the total electricity consumption ( E y ) in the future is then estimated based on α y and β y ; Equations (12) and (13), respectively. F y = H y / α y (12) E y = F y · β y (13) The fractions of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and biofuels used every year in the P&P sector ( f i , y ) were also obtained from the same source. Equation (14) represents the consumption of each fuel in year y . F i , y = H y / α y · f i , y (14) The estimation of the purchased electricity was made by calculating the ratio between the electricity consumed from the grid and the total electricity consumption g y (Equa- tion (15)), E y , grid , data and E y , data , respectively, were also reported by Austropapier [9,30–34].
E purchased , data , y E y , data
(15)
g y =
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