Energies 2021 , 14 , 1161
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Figure 7. The effect of technology application on the CO 2 emission, heat, and electricity consumption compared to the current status of paper grade production.
The comparison between writing paper production by the integrated and non-integrated mills shows that the first one consumes less energy (especially heat), which directly affects the emission reduction. As depicted in Figure 7, the modeling results reveal that the use of drying technologies reduces the specific CO 2 emissions in each paper grade due to energy (heat) demand reduction. 5. Scenario Definition and Results In this section, energy efficiency improvement and CO 2 emission reduction in the P&P sector are predicted using several scenarios for Austria until 2050. The business-as- usual (BAU) scenario analyzes the situation of the sector without significant technological improvement, and six alternative scenarios will be used to analyze the impact of imple- menting each of the six selected technology individually. In this work, a combination of technologies is not considered. All scenarios have a starting point based on the development of consumption of paper products in Europe, as predicted by Lamberg et al. [50] in Table 10. The P&P production growth rate could be affected by unexpected future events and trends, such as the increasing digitalization of media and communication, energy and raw material prices, etc. However, considering this effect is not this study’s argument, it is assumed that paper production will follow the same trend as paper consumption in Europe.
Table 10. Predictions for paper consumption used in the model (AAGR: annual average growth rate) [50].
Printing and Writing
Packing Materials
Household and Sanitary
Other Paper andBoard
Total Demand
Newsprint
AAGR(%)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
For each investigated technology, the deployment year was assigned based on its commercial status: demonstrated and semi-commercial technologies with TRL 7–8 are applied in the year 2025 and pilot or scaling technologies with TRL 6–7 in the year 2030. The maximum relative deployment (share of production using the technology) in the sector for the first year of technology usage was estimated, taking into account two factors: CAPEX (capital expenditure) and the need to adapt the production process to the new technology.
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