Energies 2021 , 14 , 1161
23of 30
From this starting point, the deployment rate increases linearly until 2050 to 100%. A 100% deployment of technology to the production of one grade of paper means that it is assumed that all production lines of this grade of paper utilize this technology, but not lines producing other grades. To calculate the scenarios, the variables were divided into two groups: dynamic variables, which evolve according to the specific assumptions of each trend, and constant variables. The constant variables are: - The ratio between heat consumption and fuel consumption ( α y ), with a value of 0.63 corresponding to the base year 2017; - The average emission factor associated with grid electricity consumption is the same ( e fgrid ); - The emission factors of each fuel used ( e i ) corresponding to the base year. To analyze the scenarios, the impact of the selected technologies across the P&P sector was assessed in annual time steps up to 2050, and CO 2 emissions and energy consumption was calculated using the developed model. The results of such an analysis do not provide an accurate prediction for the pulp and paper sector due to the impact of other options, e.g., the uncertainty regarding the decarbonization of the energy system, power generation resources, flexibility options, and the use of renewable energy policies, etc., which are not addressed in this work. However, these results provide valuable conclusions on the influencing factors that need to be considered by experts and policymakers. Figure 8 presents the modeling results for the projection trend of paper production and CO 2 emissions for the BAU scenario, without technological improvements and changes to the type of energy source consumed for heat generation.
Figure8. Projection of CO 2 emissions in the BAU (business as usual) scenario and paper production trend of the Austrian P&P sector. The projection trend of CO 2 emission and energy consumption in the six alternative scenarios are presented in Figures 9–12.
Made with FlippingBook - Online magazine maker