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P.W. Gri ffi n et al.
would give rise to ‘ carbon sinks ’ or ‘ negative emissions ’ . However, given the output produced and the size of sites this is considered by some to be unlikely to be realised [34], and have instead advocated carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) in order to use CO 2 to produce fuel, chemicals [23] and other materials [5]. The CEPI believe that other innovative (so-called ‘ disruptive ’ ) technologies could complement the GHG emissions reduction by some 3 MtCO 2e in Europe by 2050 [33].
making process, the fl exibility margin is very small [49] and most of the energy required by the sector (steam and electricity) is generated on- site, therefore mostly ‘ o ff -grid ’ . Nevertheless, the widespread geo- graphical distribution of paper mills across Europe would permit the cost-e ff ective absorption of excess electricity from NP RES, substantially reducing the need for costly investments in grid extensions [49]. Policy makers, and actors in the energy sector more broadly, envisage that the scale and value of DSF is likely to grow in the future as part of a smarter system and with technological advances [4]. DSP will necessarily re- quire the adoption of an appropriate regulatory framework, clear market roles, and a standardisation of processes to reduce transaction costs for aggregators. 3.3.5. Emerging and breakthrough technologies Carbon sequestration from forestry and vegetation is an important part of the Earth ’ s carbon cycle. Worldwide, carbon sequestration technologies capable of removing CO 2 fromthe fl ue gases of fossil fuel- fi red power plants are now being investigated as a matter of some priority [26,32,51]. They are perhaps the key innovative technology in this area. The paper industry has long used biogenic process waste as an energy source, and over half of the energy utilised by the European industry is generated from biomass [52]. The UK industry, represented by the CPI [19], argues that paper production drives sustainable (and certi fi ed) forest growth. Here the IEA worked jointly with the ‘ Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum ’ and the ‘ Global CCS Institute ’ [53]. They noted that the deployment of large-scale CCS demonstration projects is critical to the deployment of the technology. The IEA progress review [53] suggests that government and regional groups had made com- mitments to launch 19 – 43 such demonstrators by 2020. These devel- opments were identi fi ed in the USA, the EU ( “ particularly the United Kingdom ” ), Canada and Australia. But the partners noted that im- plementation of such a programme would be challenging. The 2008 economic ’ downturn ’ , and the more recent Eurozone fi nancial crisis, have both made the economic situation far more di ffi cult in terms of potential public investments in large-scale energy projects of all kinds. If CCS facilities could be employed together with bioenergy, then it
4. UK pulp and paper ‘ technology roadmaps ’ to a low carbon future by 2050
4.1. Background
A set of technology roadmaps have been developed in order to evaluate for the potential deployment of the identi fi ed paper sector technologies out to 2050. (Alternative modelling approaches have been adopted by the EU [54] and in the USA [55].) The extent of resource demand and GHG emissions reduction has been estimated here and projected forward. Such roadmaps represent future projections that match short-term (say out to 2035) and long-term (2050) targets with speci fi c technological solutions to help meet key energy saving and decarbonisation goals. A bottom-up technology roadmap approach has been adopted, based on those that were initially used by Gri ffi n et al. [7,23,56] to examine the impact of UK cement decarbonisation (for further details see Gri ffi n [57]). Thus, their contents were built up on the basis of the improvement potentials associated with various pro- cesses employed in the paper industry and embedded in the UED [7,9,10].
4.2. Benchmark UK paper technology projections
The projected benchmark is a ff ected by sector output, grid dec- arbonisation, and deployment of BPT/BAT. It is assumed that the GB grid will decarbonise by around 85% over the period 2010 – 2050. GHG emissions pathways of illustrative technology roadmaps for several of the smaller UK so-called energy intensive industrial sectors - pulp and
Fig. 7. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions splits of 2050 technology roadmaps of some UK energy- intensive industries under the Reasonable Action (RA) scenario: pulp and paper, lime, glass, and bricks. {The overall trend under a more Radical Transition (RT scenario) is also depicted.} Source: Gri ffi n [47].
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