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P.W. Gri ffi n et al.
• Reasonable Action (RA). All identi fi ed e ffi ciency technologies are presumed to be installed by 2025, and retired equipment are re- placed with best practice ones by 2030. • Reasonable Action including CCS (RA-CCS). This scenario is based on RA, but includes the potential impact of CCS. Biomass co- fi ringwith CCS may, of course, mitigate upstream emissions on a full life-cycle basis, due to potential ‘ negative emissions ’ [63]; something that will need careful examination in future studies. • Radical Transition (RT). This scenario explores a boosted or radical version of the reasonable action (without CCS) scenario [57].
paper, lime, glass, and bricks - over the period 1990 – 2050 are illu- strated in Fig. 7. None of these sectors were identi fi ed as having viable CCS opportunities, and only the paper sector was identi fi ed as being open to radical process transition. Also shown are the trajectories of relevant GHG emission targets and caps. It was estimated that EU-ETS legislation in 2010 covered 94% of direct GHG emissions from energy- intensive industry. These four industrial sectors were determined via the bottom-up assessment of the relationship between SEC and physical output. Physical output was fi rst obtained or estimated for each sector. For bricks, output was determined by moving the 2010 tonnage re- ported for the CCA scheme pro rata with the trend in numbers of brick produced according to the British Geological Survey (BGS) [57 – 60].Glass output trend was back-calculated from raw material process emission estimated for the UK GHG Inventory [61], which assumes emissive raw material demand in the vast majority of glass product types and mass output [62]. The same approach is applied to estimate the production trends for lime (and ammonia; see Gri ffi n [57]). E ffi ciency improve- ments via CHP plant were not directly assessed here, due largely to uncertainty about the impact of fuel switching.
4.4. Alternative UK paper technology roadmaps
The various so-called ‘ energy-intensive ’ sectors considered include pulp and paper, lime, glass and bricks (with some reference given to the wider ceramics sector described by Gri ffi n [57]). Background calcula- tions and modelling are described there. For brick manufacture, present fuel mix was taken from a recent study by the Carbon Trust [60] and combined with the SEC reported for the sector CCA scheme [64]. SEC was linearly extrapolated to the level in 1980 as reported by Langley [65]. For glass, SEC was assumed to change with the trend in e ffi ciency of glass furnaces reported by British Glass [66], which is likely to ac- count for about 70% of sector energy demand. Fuel mix since 1990 is dominated by natural gas for both glass and bricks production, and was assumed to conform to the mix published by the UK O ffi ce of National Statistics (ONS) [67] for glass and other ceramic products (SIC 23.1 – 4 and 23.7 – 9). SEC of paper-making was backcasted linearly from the baseline (2010) to that reported in 1980, and fuel mix changes in re- newable fuel requirements were informed by the CPI (David Morgan, CPI, private communication, 2013). It was not possible to extrapolate Lime SEC to an earlier time period, and so this was conservatively as- sumed to improve at a rate of 1% per annum from 1990 to the baseline date. The fuel mix was inferred from ONS data [67], which has stayed reasonably constant over the period, except for an increase in the use of waste fuels in recent years. Natural gas combustion is listed separately for ammonia production by the ONS, and this was used to represent energy demand for ammonia (see also Gri ffi n et al. [23]). GHG emission splits for the Reasonable Action (RA) roadmaps of
4.3. Scenario de fi nition
The identi fi ed improvement technologies for the UK were in- corporated into the paper technology roadmap framework through a series of scenarios. The baseline year for the framework was taken as 2010. Full details of the both the 2010 baseline and the BAT/BPT im- provements can be found in the UKERC industrial UED [9,10]. Four future scenarios were devised in order to demonstrate this approach. The paper industry has been active in the area of technology road- mapping, particularly at the global level by the IEA [39], and ideas from such roadmaps were drawn on in constructing some of the sce- narios detailed below [7,23,56,57]:- • Low Action (LA). This scenario describes a path of only slight im- provements. No further investment is presumed to be made in ad- ditional process technology improvements and e ffi ciency is only improved incidentally through the replacement of industrial facil- ities.
Fig. 8. Energy splits in the 2050 technology roadmaps of some UK energy-intensive industries under the Reasonable Action (RA) scenario: pulp and paper, lime, glass, and bricks. {The overall trend under a more Radical Transition (RT scenario) is also depicted.} Source: Gri ffi n [47].
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