$SSOLHG7KHUPDO(QJLQHHULQJ ²
P.W. Gri ffi n et al.
technologies (BATs) will lead to further, short-term energy and GHG emissions savings in paper mills, but the prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by mid-21st century is spec- ulative. There are many non-technological barriers to the take-up of such technologies [7,22]. The possible role of bioenergy as a fuel re- source going forward has also been appraised. Finally, UK roadmaps for the paper sector out to a low carbon future in 2050 have been evaluated. They exhibit quite large uncertainties, and the attainment of signi fi cant falls in GHG emissions over the long-term will depends critically on the adoption of a small number of key technologies [e.g., energy e ffi ciency and heat recovery techniques, bioenergy (with and without CHP), and the electri fi cation of heat], alongside a decarbonisation of the elec- tricity supply. Thus, this novel technology assessment and associated roadmaps help identify the steps needed to be made by developers, policy makers and other stakeholders in order to ensure the dec- arbonisation of the UK paper industry.
each of the energy-intensive industrial sectors modelled over the period 1990 – 2050 is depicted in Fig. 7. It can be seen that pulp and paper sector satis fi es the 80% decarbonising target by 2050 compared to the emissions in 1990. This was established by both the UK Government for the economy overall [38], and by the CEPI for the European pulp and paper sector [33]. The CEPI believe it can be achieved alongside 50% more added value created by the industry. Fig. 7 indicates that, under the RA scenario, the total (fuel plus indirect) GHG emissions are likely to fall from about 7.5 MtCO 2e in 1990 to 1.5 MtCO 2e in 2050, i.e., coincidentally almost exactly an 80% reduction. The Radical Transition (RT) roadmap trend for pulp and paper is also shown in Fig. 7 for completeness, and displays an 85% fall. The associated energy splits are then displayed in Fig. 8. This suggests that, again under the RA sce- nario, natural gas is likely to contribute some 37% towards the total (fuel plus indirect) pulp and paper sectoral energy use by 2050, whilst biofuels and biogenic wastes similarly amount to 37%. Primary elec- tricity [principally generated via nuclear power, onshore and o ff shore wind turbines, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, and hydro-power] ac- counts for the remaining 26%. This is an energy mix with a much lower carbon content than the 2010 baseline made up of 56% NG, 28% pri- mary electricity, 11% biofuels, and ∼ 5% coal. With the application of a more Radical Transition (incorporated in the RT scenario), an energy saving of 56% is observed over 1990 – 2050 in comparison to that per- taining with just Reasonable Action (resulting from the RA scenario) of 47%. Energy demand for the paper industry remains fairly constant at about 55 PJ after 2030; only half that in 1990. Both the RA and RT scenarios presume a 15% process SEC improvement going forward. In the various energy-intensive industrial sectors illustrated in Fig. 8, the dramatic (negative) impact of the 2008 global ‘ fi nancial crisis ’ on UK industry that resulted in a severe economic downturn or ‘ recession ’ can clearly be seen, particularly as re fl ected by the fall in energy con- sumption associated with construction-related artefacts and infra- structure projects (requiring the use of Bricks and Lime ). That was due mainly to the decline in physical products from these sectors. The Sankey-type energy fl ow diagram shown above as Fig. 6 indicates the 2010 baseline division of inputs (fuels and primary electricity) to the UK paper industry against its outputs (the energy consumed by the paper machine and ancillary processes). The important role of CHP plants in providing both heat and power is depicted in Fig. 6 as an intermediate node or process between the ‘ arrows ’ or ‘ links ’ that re- present the magnitude of the energy fl ows.
Acknowledgements
The work reported forms part of a programme of research at the University of Bath on the technology assessment of energy systems and transition pathways towards a low carbon future that has been sup- ported by a series of UK research grants and contracts awarded by various bodies associated with the Research Councils UK (RCUK) Energy Programme for which the second author (GPH) was the holder. This programme is a cross council initiative led by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), and contributed to by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) and Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC). The research grants associated with industrial energy demand and carbon emissions reduction originally formed a part of the ‘ core ’ research programme of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC); Phase 2, 2009-2014 [under Grant NE/G007748/1]. The fi rst author (PWG) and third author (JBN) undertook their contributions to the present work as part of a UKERC fl exible funding project entitled ‘ Industrial Energy Use from a Bottom-up Perspective ’ [for which the second author (GPH) was the Principal Investigator]. During the preparation of this paper the second (GPH) and third (JBN) authors continued to work in the fi eld of industrial energy use and carbon emissions reduction sup- ported by the EPSRC ‘ End Use Energy Demand ’ (EUED) Programme, as part of the Centre for Industrial Energy, Materials and Products (CIE-MAP) [under Grant EP/N022645/1], as a Co-Director and Research Fellow respectively. The authors' names are listed alphabetically.
5. Concluding remarks
The potential for reducing industrial energy demand and ‘ green- house gas ’ (GHG) emissions in the Pulp and Paper sector has been evaluated within a UK context, although the lessons learned are ap- plicable across much of the industrialised world. This sector gives rise to about 6% of UK industrial GHG emissions resulting principally from fuel use, as well as that indirectly emitted because of electricity use. It can be characterised as being heterogeneous with a wide range of product outputs (including banknotes, books, magazines, newspapers and packaging, e.g., fabricated from corrugated paper and board), and sits roughly on the boundary between energy-intensive (EI) and non- energy-intensive (NEI) industrial sectors as previously characterised by Gri ffi n et al. [7] (see again Fig. 2). Some 70% of recovered or recycled fi bre is employed to make paper products in the UK. Process energy requirements are dominated by a combination of drying/separation processes (40%), low temperature heating processes (28%), compressed air requirements (10%), space heating (8%) and electrical motors (6%) [3]. Fuel use in combined heat and power (CHP) plants has been mod- elled in terms of so-called ‘ auto-generation ’ . Special care was taken not to ‘ double count ’ auto-generation and grid decarbonisation; so that the relative contributions of each have been accounted for separately. Most of the electricity generated via steam boilers or CHP is used within the sector, with only a small amount exported. Currently-available
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2018. 01.126.
References
[1] Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy [BEIS], Energy Consumption in the UK, BEIS, London, 2016. [2] Department of Energy and Climate Change [DECC], Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2015, DECC, London, 2016. [3] J.B. Norman, Industrial Energy Use and Improvement Potential, PhD Thesis University of Bath, Bath, UK, 2013. [4] C.H. Dyer, CH, G.P. Hammond, C.I. Jones, R.C. McKenna, Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management, Energy Policy 36 (2008) 4434 – 4443. [5] G.P. Hammond, Industrial energy analysis, thermodynamics and sustainability (In memoriam: Willem van Gool), Applied Energy 84 (2007) 675 – 700. [6] G.P. Hammond, J.B. Norman, Heat recovery opportunities in UK industry, Applied Energy 116 (2014) 387 – 397. [7] P.W. Gri ffi n, G.P. Hammond, J.B. Norman, Industrial energy use and carbon emissions reduction: A UK perspective, WIREs Energy Environ. 5 (2016) 684 – 714. [8] G.P. Hammond, J.B. Norman, Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator