Energies 2023 , 16 , 280
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In the coming years, several ammonia projects are scheduled to come online with an expected minimum of 3 Mt electrolytic ammonia production for conventional uses, considering projects that were announced as of June 2021 (Figure 4a). In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) of IEA assessment, the ammonia production via electrolysis will play a crucial role. By 2050, electrolytic ammonia will account for about 20% of global ammonia production (a rise from the current <0.01%), with Europe, India, and China being the main regions of green hydrogen production (Figure 5). The green ammonia in the global output according to IEA’s Net Zero Emission (NZE) scenario by 2050 has higher shares than SDS. In the NZE scenario, ammonia for power generation could reach 85 Mt as opposed to a near zero share in 2020 (Figure 4b). Furthermore, due to the emission reduction targets in the shipping sector (cut maritime emissions by at least 50% by 2050) and sulfur content limits of marine fuels, ammonia which is considered to be the “destination fuel” will be an important shipping fuel. As seen in Figure 4c, the share of total fuel consumption of ammonia in national and international maritime shipping could reach around 25% in the SDS and around 45% in the NZE scenario by 2050 [42].
Figure4. ( a ) Pathways to near zero emission ammonia production (current and announced); ( b ) ammonia demand by sector (SDS: sustainable development scenario; NZE: net zero emissions); ( c ) shipping sector ammonia demand [42] (Published under license CC BY 4.0).
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