Energies 2023 , 16 , 280
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Figure5. Various ammonia production pathways and scenarios in major ammonia-producing regions (STEPS: Stated Policies Scenario) [42] (Published under license CC BY 4.0). According to IRENA’s assessment, the global transition towards the 1.5 °C goal could potentially lead to a 688 Mt ammonia market which is about 4 times larger than the existing market, and green ammonia will dominate the global ammonia market. Over the next 30 years, 566 Mt of new green ammonia production must come on-stream. This will consti- tute about 20% of the global green hydrogen market [29]. The future green ammonia market opens up channels for the penetration of high shares of renewable generation capacity. In other words, the interaction between renewable power and ammonia sectors will signifi- cantly increase the renewable electricity generation capacity due to the increased demand for green hydrogen in the synthesis of green ammonia. With the estimated 566 Mt of green hydrogen by 2050, 2.3 TW of renewable generation would be required which is nearly 30% of the current global cumulative electricity capacity [45]. From Power-to-ammonia (P2A) concepts, surplus electricity from variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar can be converted into green ammonia, which can provide long-term storage. As seen in Figure 6, P2A provides better seasonal storage and capacity than other alter- natives with similar purposes. In the future energy system, therefore, P2A will provide the required balance to the grid that would have otherwise been overloaded and unstable (due to the mismatch between high renewable generation and demand) by minimizing power curtailment.
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