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A. Toppinen et al. / Futures 88 (2017) 1 – 14
Bettis, 1986). Dominant logic can be manifested through e.g. organization ’ s business model, processes and approaches to competition (Prahalad, 2004). It is embedded in an organization and according to Prahalad (2004:172), “ it becomes the lens through which managers see all emerging opportunities ” . Thus, it limits the incumbent organization ’ s ability to rethink and question the traditional business logic and way of doing business one is not agilely able to recognize changes in the competitive environment and drive innovation. Due to its cognitive nature, “ changing the dominant logic is extremely dif fi cult ” (Prahalad, 2004:172), although vital for future value creation requiring, for example, internal development of new products or markets, or external development through acquisitions or the building of strategic alliances. Prahalad (2004) had de fi ned approaches how fi rms can better understand the emerging changes and opportunities in the competitive environment, including focusing on next practices (instead of benchmarking current best practices), learning from low-cost experimentation, and looking beyond the borders of industries and geographic borders. According to Kaplan (2011), in aim to understand strategic changes of organizations, the cognitive-based explanations have found to be very useful.
2.2. Industry dynamics and structural change within the forest industry
The PPI is an interesting example of an industry in which technology has for the most part developed only incrementally, with low-intensity research and development, and relatively high dependency on wood raw material (including pulp and recycled paper, 44% altogether), energy (16%), and chemicals (16%) in its total manufacturing costs (CEPI, 2013). Globally, the export value of forest industry products (pulp, paper and wood products) amounts to 250 billion USD annually. Table 1 summarizes some of the most recent studies analyzing the future of the forest sector from a strategic perspective (excluding technologically focused studies). Based on it, quite a few of the studies in question focus on the forest-based bioenergy business. Earlier research has also analyzed potential developmental trends or proposed future scenarios for the industry, but the overall state of art seems very limited to address issues that have become eminent in industry renewal and strategic transformation in the future bio-economy. We will next discuss these issues in more depth. Highly volatile forest product and input prices have traditionally had the most signi fi cant impact on the development of company performance, dictated by economies of scale and scope (e.g. Diesen, 2007). Investments in production facilities and plants are capital intensive, especially in the pulp and paper segment, and therefore the return on investments is relatively
Table 1 An overview of recent (2010 – 2015) strategically focused future-oriented studies in the forest sector.
Study
Main objective
Method
Main fi ndings
Jonsson (2011)
Analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and [51_TD$DIFF] discusses the implications for the Swedish forest sector
Qualitative scenario analysis
Provides four possible scenarios. The outlook for the Swedish solid wood-product industry is optimistic, but the prospects for the PPI in Sweden are more dif fi cult to predict. The economic performance of eco-ef fi ciency should be measured using the ‘ value added ’ indicator and environmental performance based on output by emission groups or environmental impact. Actors ’ perceptions of the changes facing the forest sector diverge widely. However, most actors see its future as linked to the broader issues of climate mitigation and energy transition. There seems to be potential for success in the biore fi nery business, but support from the macro- scale environment is needed and the industries themselves need to be active. A conservative organizational culture and a lack of fi nancial resources create barriers to change. New managerial and operational-level skills are needed, and a readiness for change should be embedded in the organizational culture. Trends and changes in the environment will affect packaging and may bring both threats and opportunities. The complementary resources held by forest and energy companies make collaboration in the bioenergy business favorable. Global sustainability megaforces are perceived more as opportunities than as threats. Adaptation to climate change was identi fi ed as the greatest threat.
Koskela
Discusses the measurement of eco-ef fi ciency in the Finnish forest industry
Delphi method and public data
(2015)
Lindahl and
Analyzes how the future is handled by actors in the present day
Twenty-four semi- structured interviews supplemented with written material An expert opinion survey combined with a Delphi approach
Westholm (2012)
Näyhä and Pesonen (2012) Näyhä and Pesonen (2014)
Outlines global and national drivers of forest biore fi neries in Scandinavia and North America
[52_TD$DIFF] Explores the current forest industry in terms of its change features, necessary resources, and management for the biore fi ning business
Data from the fi nal round of a three-phase Delphi study
Olsmats and Kaivo- oja (2014)
Maps and analyzes general trends and drivers among consumers and businesses within the packaging industry
Participatory foresight and focus-group methodology
[53_TD$DIFF] Pätäri
Identi fi es the main industry- and company-level factors that are most likely to in fl uence the bioenergy sector and its value-creation potential Analyzes how the PPI experts and the industry understand and foresee the expected in fl uences arising from sustainability megaforces
Delphi study
(2010)
[53_TD$DIFF] Pätäri et al. (2016)
Delphi study
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