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long-term compared to other industries. Furthermore, the industry has become more exposed to changes in its value chains, including media digitalization, growing customer awareness of sustainability issues, more intensive global competition, and the increasing complexity of industry regulation (of which recent examples include the EU chemical directive REACH and the EU Timber Regulation establishing legality veri fi cation needs for wood raw material). The global demand for pulp and paper products has been relatively stable on the product level: although the rapidly growing digital media have reduced the demand for newsprint and other printing and writing paper, the consumption of paper and paperboard is continuously rising, being the material most commonly used in the global packaging sector. On the regional level, industry in Europe has been lacking large-scale investment in the 2000s (CEPI, 2013), and its competitiveness has dramatically changed in recent decades. The lower costs of production in Latin America (pulp) and Southeast Asia (paper, packaging) have intensi fi ed competition, the use of digital media has rapidly curtailed the use of printing paper, and European Union policies promoting the production of renewable bioenergy have increased the costs of wood raw material. Being closer to end-user growth markets has been a key driving force behind the location of global paper investments, whereas pulp investments have been more inherently resource-driven ( [69_TD$DIFF] Zhang, Toppinen, & Uusivuori, 2014). The European paper industry has been suffering from low pro fi tability and signi fi cant price erosion since 2009, especially in the market for graphic paper, leading to a wave of consolidation, divestments and capacity reduction. This fi nancial hardship has led to the elimination of non-core activities and a constant need to reduce costs. According to Uronen (2010), most producers of paper and board are positioned in the middle of the value chain, where they can only generate about fi ve percent of the total value creation. Conversely, markets for pulp and recycled paper have developed more favorably on the raw materials side, with booming demand in China and other emerging countries. Longer rotations in wood fi ber markets in the boreal zone (which is the major procurement area for producers in the European PPI), as compared to the fast-growing plantations of the Southern hemisphere, have put the companies under cost pressure. Currently there are plans for new investments in softwood pulp capacity in Finland, for example, but the focal areas for new investments are now Latin America and Asia, and in terms of paper and paperboard manufacturing in particular, China ( [70_TD$DIFF] Zhang et al., 2014). The conditions of the forest industry, i.e. a mature industry in which the pro fi tability is decreasing, are characteristics that challenge the existing business models and thus the industry dominant logic (Sabatier, Craig-Kennard, & Mangematin, 2012). However, this characteristic of a mature industry brings about also challenges speci fi c to old and large fi rms (Peltoniemi, 2013). An industry ’ s dominant logic could be described as re fl ecting its strategy across different businesses, and is also often connected with too strong lock-in and perceived inef fi ciency to diversify existing business models (Prahalad & Bettis, 1986; see also Abrahamson & Fombrun, 1994). Typically, the forest industry has been suffering from stagnation, not only in fi nancial sense, but also in the way how it renews the business. According to Näyhä, Hetemäki, and Stern (2014), companies in the European forest sector are diversifying their business models and product portfolios by developing new products and services based on forest biomass, and the traditional sector will most likely fragment into several segments specialized in a variety of forest products. Consequently, regions such as Europe and Asia will also have to compete with each over where the companies will situate their activities in global value chains. Hence, the degree of specialization and diversi fi cation is expected to increase in the future. It is also evident in the strategies of some large forest industry companies (see, e.g., the recent shift in the business segments of UPM-Kymmene Ltd.) that in future the strategic orientation will increasingly diversify to include the production of renewable fuels, chemicals, bio-based fi brils and wood composite materials, for example. All this underlines the need for building strategic cross-sector partnerships. Such strategy may bring some bene fi ts to the PPI in terms of corporate sustainability in that knowledge about the sourcing and production of raw materials could be used in ensuring forest-industry compliance with sustainability requirements, particularly at the beginning of the value chain (e.g. [71_TD$DIFF] Pätäri, 2009). The globalization of markets and a growing awareness of sustainability are making the PPI increasingly vulnerable to corporate sustainability images and more complex demands from a wide range of stakeholders for operational accountability. Issues related to corporate responsibility are no longer of marginal importance. Corporate investments in sustainability have been suggested to focus on improved energy and resource ef fi ciency, more synergic value creation between various stages in forest-wood value chains, and the development of solutions to enhance customers ’ quality of life in the form of durable and safe products with integrated service components ( [72_TD$DIFF] Toppinen et al., 2013, Chap 17). Within the European PPI, despite an emphasis on sustainability leadership, the increasing environmental regulation is seen as a threat to maintaining current forest-industry production levels (CEPI, 2013). The sustainability-related risks, costs and constraints of doing business have clearly intensi fi ed competition between regions, but also provide signi fi cant new innovation opportunities. To sum up, the future business environment of the European PPI is highly uncertain in light of the multitude of change factors outlined above. This uncertainty has an impact on the rivalry between current players and new entrants both in Europe and beyond, and merits empirical foresight studies as proposed in Hurmekoski and Hetemäki (2013) and Hetemäki and Hänninen (2013), for example.
3. Data and methods
The Delphi method is one of the best-known and most used forecasting mechanisms. Although the Delphi approach has faced quite a lot of criticism, it has an established position as an effective tool for gathering expert opinions on a variety of
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